2 weeks has passed, as I expected, there’s been a slight change in both generic congressional ballots since the SCOTUS overturned ROE. RCP averages saw the GOP lead of 2.5 points cut to 1.3 points. 538 saw the GOP lead of 2.3 points cut to 1.6 points. Keep in mind, both generic congressional ballots are nationwide, not district by district. Regardless, this must be good news for the Democrats.

23 June 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 44.3-41.5, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-42.5 Republican

7 July 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.1-43.8, Republican, 538 averages 44.8-43.2 Republican


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

The President’s overall job performance numbers. This is bad news for the Democrats. Biden’s approval falls, his disapproval rises.

23 June 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 39.6% approve, 55.8% disapprove

7 July 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 38.4% approve, 56.8% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Most important to the midterms is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats and the senate’s pure tossup states beginning 23 June 2022 to see the overall affect district by district and state by state of the overturning of ROE.

23 June – House 40 Democratic seats, 13 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans. Senate – 4 pure tossups, 3 democratic held seats, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 2 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

7 July – House 40 Democratic seats, 14 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category. A probable gain of 18-20 seats for the Republicans is unchanged. Senate – 3 pure tossups, 2 democratic held seats, Nevada, Arizona, 1 Republican held seats, Wisconsin. 3 lean Democratic seats, Democratic held New Hampshire and Georgia along with Republican held Pennsylvania, 1 lean Republican seat, Republican held North Carolina. Probable net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats, Pennsylvania.

Change Republican at risk house seats up one from 13 to 14, although this doesn’t change the projected Republican gain of 18-20 house seats. Good news senate wise for the Democrats in Georgia as Democrat Warnock seat is no longer in the tossup column but moved into the lean Democratic column. Bottom line, no red wave and still no chance of the Democrats retaining the house. But the senate looks like the Democrats may retain control of it. Keep in mind that lean means these are considered competitive/switchable/at risk seats, but one party has the advantage over the other party.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.