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For the house of representatives, here is the most important numbers - Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House.
There are 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 13 July 2022, 182 Democratic, 199 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 231-204 to 233-202.
The senate – competitive at-risk seats for the Democrats, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire. Competitive at-risk seats for the Republicans, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin. Looking at the at risk, competitive, switchable seats for the Democrats, New Hampshire and Georgia lean their way, Arizona and Nevada are pure tossups. For the Republicans, North Carolina leans the GOP way, Wisconsin is a pure tossup. Which leaves the Republican held seat of Pennsylvania which currently leans Democratic. Most likely outcome with this scenario is a net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats.
Historical wise, the average loss for the party in power where their president has an overall job approval of around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost and a loss of 6 senate seats. This isn’t going to happen. At least by today’s numbers. Regardless, the democrats are going to lose the house. You want a complete overview of the generic congressional ballot and not just from a single poll. Here you are.
Just keep in mind, the generic congressional ballot is national, not district by district which I outlined above.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
