Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2020 J6: Putting it all together

Boomers are fighting to stay in power like Trump fought the election results.

Ron DeSantis is 45. A fresh young face. A successful governor, a Republican phoenix, rising from the ashes of Trump.

If Dems continue their current course he will be our next president. And they seem more stubbornly set in their ways than ever.

A lot of Dems are saying that. In fact, 66% I read somewhere recently.

2 things, here’s the latest polling on the GOP nominations. This far out, meaningless, but my love of numbers…

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

Then here, in the last 3 polls taken in May, has DeSantis up by one and down by 1 and 2 in the others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election#General_election

As long as I’ve been following polls, I never have heard of these 3 polling firms. What’s worst is 538 which provides pollsters ratings, hasn’t either. They have no history. Even RCP doesn’t include them in their average. Who are they, what are they, who’s conducting them, who’s paying for them is a complete mystery? No one I know has ever heard of these polling firms. Trust factor as far as I’m concerned is zero.

Here's RCP averages, but they haven’t included any new polls since February. But these pollsters are nationally known, creditable and reliable.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ida_governor_desantis_vs_crist-7324.html

Democrats, they ran the right candidate to beat Trump, no doubt about that. He’s done his job, mission accomplished. Biden needs to disappear from any consideration for 2024. I think Sanders, Warren also need to disappear along with Harris. That is if the Democrats want to win instead of just making a statement. You do have the midterms to get into the books. If Tim Ryan upsets Vance in Ohio, there’s a presidential candidate for you. If Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania maybe another. I’ve been keen on a Duckworth/Fetterman ticket. I haven’t been following the governor races, but you could have one or two more potential Democratic nominees there.

The thing is, it is my opinion that the Democrats need a fresh, young face. If from flyover country, so much the better. Remember Bill Clinton and Obama? No old hats in the ring candidates. Choose an old foggie or an old hat in the ring candidate, they’ll probably lose. Bottom line, run a candidate attractive to independents, making up 43% of the electorate, they’ll decide who wins or loses. Not either party’s base.

The choice is up to Biden, and I imagine he will announce his retirement soon after the midterms to give potential primary candidates time to prepare. It's too early now and no one should expect him to throw in the towel yet.

But the economy is probably going to improve and he may be tempted to believe he had something to do with it and so deserves another term to secure his legacy in American history...

It is along that path where DeSantis will win the race.

DeSantis will be much stronger candidate than Trump, have no doubts about that. Especially among independents. Remember, both Bill Clinton and Obama rebounded from horrible job approval ratings and losses in congress their first midterms to basically win fairly easy reelections. A lot can change in 2 years. This is why I say we need to get the midterms in the books before worrying about 2024. They’ll have a direct effect on the presidential race 2 years from now.

But we already know what the likeliest outcome of the midterms will be. We know what the likeliest actions of a Republican house is gonna be.

We know who the likeliest Republican candidate is gonna be.

We know the economy is likely to improve, as will Joe Biden's numbers when it does.

And we know that currently Joe Biden plans to run for re-election with VP Harris.

You don't need to put the whole puzzle together before you begin to see the picture.

Yeah, we know the likely outcome in general for this year’s midterms. The GOP retakes control of the house, the Democrats most likely will retain the senate in some form, 50-50 or 51-49. With 4 months to go, a lot can change though. We still don’t know all the candidates, many states still have their primaries this month, in August and into September. Your man DeSantis should win Florida’s governorship, Fetterman PA’s senate race.

Kelly, AZ, Cortez-Masto, NV, Hassan, NH, Warnock GA, all have an advantage today as do Republican Budd in NC, Johnson in WI. Ryan trails Vance in Ohio by 3 points, but that’s within the margin of error. Ohio being a tossup? Who would have figured?

Trump has helped out the Democrats in GA and PA with poor candidates for the General Election. He could do the same in AZ and NH when their primaries roll around. We’ll see.

Helloooooo...

I think Fetterman is fairly doubtful in the near term. He looks to me like he's gonna try to be the best Senator he can be for his state before he jumps to the head of the class. I would admire him more for that than using a senate win as a springboard to leadership of the free world. Before he understands how the game is played.

I'm fond of Buttigieg right now. He's run a presidential primary campaign and served in a cabinet position where he could learn the ropes firsthand. I'm thinking his queerness could work to his advantage.

I'd vote for either or both...but that might be putting the cart before the horse...some new players might emerge during the midterms...some old players might become new again.

Give Fetterman 2 years as PA’s senator, then the number 2 slot with Tammy Duckworth at the top of the ticket. I’d advise keep an eye on the Ohio senate race for a dark horse for 2024. Ryan has a 1.8 point lead over Vance per 538 weighted averages.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/

Remember Ryan did challenge Pelosi for Speaker a few years ago. A win for Ryan would place him in the pact if he is interested in running. That’s the thing, usually those best qualified who have the charisma to win aren’t interested. I don’t blame them, I’d never want to go through what is dished out.