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“The former president is motivated to announce early — even before Election Day 2022 — in the hopes of clearing the field of primary rivals. But GOP leaders, including some of Trump’s closest advisors, don’t want him to declare his intentions until after the midterm elections. The GOP wants to keep voters focused on President Joe Biden, rather than transforming the contest into a referendum on Trump.”
My thoughts, the leaked SCOTUS draft didn’t move the needle for the upcoming midterms, the mass shootings in Buffalo and Texas didn’t either, the SCOTUS overturning ROE hasn’t. The needle is within a point of exactly where it was prior to the above happening. Now if Trump announced early, before the midterms, as feared by Republican leaders, instead of this election being about inflation and Biden, it could, I repeat, could turn into one about Trump. If that were to happen, the chances of retaining the House would improve and picking up 3 or so seats in the senate seems likely. Independents still don’t like Trump and their hesitancy to vote for Trump back candidates, Republicans in general is limiting the damage to the Democrats of having a president with a very low 38% approval rating.
I think a Trump announcement that he’s running for president again prior to the midterms could do something that the leaked draft, the mass shootings, the overturning of ROE couldn’t. I stated abortion was baked into the equation. Maybe Trump is too when it comes to independents. Announcing his candidacy prior to the midterms would be a way of placing Trump on the ballot. Independents don’t like him and would move some to vote Democratic instead of Republican. Would Trump’s announcement be enough to give the Democratic House candidates that 3-5 extra points needed to win in those competitive, at risk, swing and switchable districts? It just might. At a minimum cut an expected 18-20 seat loss down to 10 or perhaps under. It would be most interesting.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
