Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

It varies election to election, but I can give you some numbers from past presidential elections.
2020
Republicans made up 30% of the Electorate, 36% of those who voted
Democrats made up 31% of the Electorate, 37% of those who voted
Independents made up 38% of the electorate, 26% of those who voted

2016
Republicans made up 27% of the electorate, 33% of those who voted
Democrats made up 31% of the electorate, 37% of those who voted
Independents made up 40% of the electorate, 30% of those who voted

2012
Republicans made up 28% of the electorate, 32% of those who voted
Democrats made up 33% of the electorate, 38% of those who voted
Independents made up 38% of the electorate, 29% of those who voted

There’s probably a way to work out an answer to your question using the above numbers. I haven’t figured it out yet. Those who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats are way overrepresented in those who vote as to their percentage of the electorate. An average of 6 points above their percentage of the electorate. Independents are underrepresented by 9 points. You could take this back 100 years, you’d still find those who identify with either major party way overrepresented when it comes to actual voting while independent are very underrepresented. That’s normal.

This as I stated before, I chalk this up as Republicans and Democrats owning the racehorses, candidates, while independents own nothing. They’re casual observers or fans if you like. Republicans and Democrats since they’re the owners have a huge stake in the results, independent, little to no stake as they can vote for one party 60-40 one election, then turn around and vote 60-40 for the other party in the next election. While on average, those members or those who belong, identify with the two major party’s votes for their party’s candidates 94% of the time on average.

Where you have 75% of democrats enthusiastic about voting this midterm, 80% of Republicans, when it comes to independents you had 24% say no enthusiasm with another 21% basically answering, what midterms? 55% of independents said they’re enthusiastic for comparison.

Now why would independents be eager to vote? They are very unhappy, dissatisfied with Biden and the Democrats in congress, they have all the wrong priorities according to many polls. Then their alternative is the Trump led Republicans which they dislike and don’t trust Trump. Nothing there to choose from or more accurately to vote for or against if I understand the numbers correct.

I think both major parties have alienated a very large segment of independents where stay home seems the best answer when asked to choose between them.