Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Mebbe it's that anti-Roe anti-woman control over her own body thing that Cheney seems to favor. How misogynistic can another woman be to another woman?

Vance has reported that he has $629,000 in the bank with $833,000 is debt. Ryan has $3.5m war chest.

Ohio is interesting in that Vance is a Trump endorsed candidate who won the Republican Primary over a candidate better suited to win the general election. Trump also did this in Pennsylvania with Oz and in Georgia with Walker. The poorest candidate for the general election won their primaries only because Trump backed them and Trumpers flooded to vote for them.

Arizona may join the list of having a Trump backed candidate which has a very poor shot at winning the general election come Tuesday when Arizona holds their primary. As for the Democrats chances of keeping control of the senate, they keep improving as Trump keeps endorsing far right Trumpers for revenge purposes who stand a poor chance of winning in the general. Once again, Democrats should be thanking Trump profusely for all he has done to help them keep the senate. Senate election wise, Trump has been one of the biggest friends of the democrats so far this election cycle.

Rick, you need to send Trump a thank you note for helping the Democrats most likely keeping control of the senate. Without Trump, The GOP most certainly would have gained control with Biden at 38% approval and inflation still rising.

Ohio Ryan plus 2.1 – I don’t expect this to last. But it worth keeping an eye on. Miracles do happen now and then and this could be a big miracle that propels Ryan into presidential prospect for 2024.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/

Pennsylvania Fetterman plus 8.3 - This is a big one was it would be a democratic gain. I expect Fetterman to win with the Democrats ultimately in a 51-49 control come next year.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

Georgia Warnock by 3.0 – A Democratic hold.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/georgia/

Arizona, the Republicans will choose their candidate next Tuesday. Probably another Trumper which will lose to Kelly, the democratic incumbent. There’s still Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina that are all close to 50-50, but the incumbents in those three has a slight advantage and should remain with the party that currently controls them.

The bottom line, I'd give the Democrats a 60-40 shot at retaining control of the senate, but only around 10% at keeping control of the house. My 18-20 Republican seat gain in the house still applies. From tjhe current 214 for the GOP to around 234 give or take a seat or two.

Why would I do that? People with common sense have known the Dems will keep the Senate for months, because we know that anything Trump touches turns to crap.

LOL, fact is until the very recent primaries the pundits, prognosticators, forecasters were predicting the Republicans would regain both the house and the senate. In fact, I was the only one and still may be the only one having the Democrats gain a seat in the senate.

Inside editions forecast - Democrats have control of a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote. Current 2022 projection: GOP net gain of 1-3 seats. Republicans need a net gain of 1 seat for control.

http://insideelections.com/ratings/senate

The consensus forecast which includes Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, 538, fox, split ticket, elections daily, politico, CNanalyst has the Republicans at 49 seats, the Democrats at 47 seats with 4 pure tossup seats. Democratic held Georgia, Arizona and Nevada with Republican held Pennsylvania.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/consensus-2022-senate-forecast

the difference is I give Pennsylvania to the Democrats along with the Democrats holding on to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Had the Republicans nominated Black in Georgia, he’d probably have beaten Warnock, the same in PA with McCormick instead of OZ, the GOP probably would have retained that seat. Then you have Ohio which shouldn’t even be close except for Trump’s meddling. Arizona hasn't happened yet. But if not for Trump, the predicted GOP pickup of 1-3 seat most likely would have come true. So send Trump your thank you note.

Now I do take your post as a compliment as it seems I’m still the lone wolf in having the Democrats maintaining control of the senate.

When a politician was accused of having no common sense, that politician pulled out his coin purse to show one and all the amount of cents he had.

Only poll readers like you were/are saying that.

The rest of us saw that the seditious, democracy-hating, rights-taking Republicans were going to lose support months ago. Why? Common sense. I've said common sense along. My posts are an open book and this can be verified.

You don't need to read a poll - common sense will tell you everything that you need to know.

I don't know what anyone expects Dems to do beyond that.
Plenty of independents and Republicans cast votes for Joe Biden and frankly he wouldn't have won if not for that support, but once they'd gotten the use out of Joe, namely throwing Trump out to pasture, they threw Biden out like yesterday's garbage too.

Liz voted WITH Trump 90 percent of the time. Reread that...she didn't necessarily vote with other Republicans 90% of the time, she voted with TRUMP 90% of the time. Am I to surmise that people are miffed that Democrats aren't suddenly saying "You know, Liz Cheney's views are just what we Democrats need!" ??????

Is there something wrong with acknowledging and respecting Liz Cheney's devotion to the rule of law and the Constitution while simultaneously remaining in opposition to the rest of her political views?
If there is, we can just hang it all up and welcome fascism and permanent autocratic rule, forget all of it and just welcome Trump back.
Don't even hold an election, just crown the guy...we were wrong for opposing Liz.

Is that right?

One instance in...how many?
Nope sorry, doesn't change the fact that well over ninety percent of the time third party candidates siphon off votes to the benefit of Republicans.
One outlier does not a liar make.

You'd have to reach all the way back to the Bull Moose Party to find another.
But...tell ya what...if Trump runs as a third party candidate I may be proven wrong again.

Whether Joe has low approval ratings or not, i like NOT having an internet troll for a POTUS.

Actually, I gave you two recent examples, Clinton benefiting from third party voting in 2016 and Warnock benefitting from third party voting in 2020. With out the Libertarian candidate drawing 2.6% of the vote, Perdue would have won as I showed you. Now if you’re only talking Presidential, there’s been others. But the third-party vote didn’t change the outcome. Like in 2016, Clinton benefited, but still lost.

Johnson Libertarian took some 1.3 million votes from Romney while Stein took 470,000 from Obama in 2012. Once again, the Democrat benefited more. Perot drew 25% of his vote total from Republicans along with 20% from Democrats, he helped Bill Clinton win. Anderson in 1980 took votes from Reagan, but Reagan won anyway. But if you want to believe that third party voters always help elect Republicans, feel free to do so. But you’d be wrong.