Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Inflation is temporary.
Fascism is forever.

Slogans are nice, but rarely win elections. Political reality among the masses shows as of yesterday, the economy, inflation is the most important issue facing this nation today at 33%. 37% of independents, the non-affiliated, less to non-partisans place inflation, rising prices as number one. 1-6 doesn’t even make the list. Inflation may be temporary, but inflation is on most Americans minds today, not the 1-6 hearings.

Most folks just want Trump to go away, they’re tired of hearing about him. If going away means throwing him in jail, fine. If going away means Trump moves to Timbuktu to live out the rest of his life, they’re fine with that also. Just no more Trump. There’s plenty of other things in their lives, that affect their lives today that they deem way more important than getting revenge on Trump.

I believe that morality and the preservation of democracy will win over the ignorants voting with their pocket book - especially given that the GOP has made it harder for poor people to vote since 2020.

Let’s discuss inflation. Inflation is forcing a woman to give birth when she is not financially, emotionally, or psychologically ready for it. Or forcing a young couple into the same situation, Republican politicians have backed themselves into a corner and it’s their own fault and they need to be punished at the polls in November for doing so.

Given that 50% of Americans are women, the Republicans will take a schlacking in November. There are a lot if red state women who will tell their regressive husbands they’re voting Republican, then cast a different vote in the booth.

If you think so Rick. November will answer whether all those GOP women will vote Democratic. We'll just have to wait and see. I’d say Republican women are republican women because they agree with Republican party ideology and philosophy. I doubt you’ll see many republican women voting democratic this November. You’ll see Democratic women voting democratic. But they didn’t need the abortion issue to vote democratic, they were going so anyway. I still believe the abortion issue as being baked into the equation for the most part. Other events, happenings along with independents dislike of Trump is helping the Democrats out. Not abortion.

Independents, only 4% of independents list abortion as the top issue in deciding how they’ll vote. However, 36% list the economy/inflation as their most important issue in deciding how they’ll vote. What interesting is 89% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Democratic congressional candidates, 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for their congressional candidates. Those are down from historical averages of 94%.

But we’ll see, the Democrats in the generic congressional ballot has closed the gap from 2.5 GOP lead a month ago, 30 June to a 0.9 GOP lead today, 31 July. What hasn’t changed is the number of competitive, at risk of switching house seats, 54 total with 40 currently being democratic held seats to 14 for the Republicans. No change in the senate either with the Democrats gaining PA with the remaining senate seats staying the same.

Another interesting part of the figures, numbers, they’re showing Democrats gaining among white voters, but Republican gaining among blacks, Hispanics and Asian comparing the numbers to 2020 and how these groups are stating who they’ll vote for, although they’re way too many undecides to state his for a fact.But this seems to be the trend.

No. There aren't. You're grasping at straws. Conservatives will accept conservative rulings and move on. And whatever makes you think a majority of Republican women are pro-life?
Or that abortion is an important issue to them?

That grocery bill though...? That's a pretty big issue every week.

Democrats have failed to instill confidence in their ability to govern. It will cost them a few seats in the House. Not a lot, and not unexpected, but enough to lose the majority.

There are a lot of reasons this could be strategically good for the Democrats. It might be the one single thing that could prevent a DeSantis presidency. Power ebbs and flows and, like water, it always takes a predictable course.

Both parties want all the power, all the time. It's not gonna happen. The American system is a pretty beautiful thing.

James Carville said it clearly:"Ralph Nader basically elected GWB in 2000. Jill Stein basically elected Trump in 2016."
In PA,WI &MI Hillary lost by a mere 77k votes;there were 800k 3rd party votes in PA,WI & MI.

2016 Johnson, Libertarian received more votes and took more votes from Trump in those 3 deciding states than Stein took from Clinton.

Michigan Johnson 172,136 votes 3.6% to Stein’s 57,463 1.1%
Pennsylvania Johnson 146,715 2.4% to Stein’s 49,941 0.8%
Wisconsin Johnson 106,674 3.6% to Stein’s 31,072 1.0%

As to you can from above, Libertarian, third party candidate Johnson cost Trump many more votes than Stein cost Clinton. I didn’t include the conservative candidate Evan McMullen which also cost Trump some votes. You can check out the figures here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

Stein may have taken 138,476 from Clinton in those three deciding states, but Johnson took quite a lot more from Trump, 425,525 votes to be exact. Once again, third party candidates hurt the GOP or in this case, Trump much more than the Democrats, Hillary Clinton. In fact, without third party votes, Trump would have edged Clinton in the popular vote 49.4 to 49.3, again not counting conservative Evan McMullen who received 0.54% of the nationwide vote which would have put Trump at 49.95%. You do have other third parties which received 0.84%, I don’t have the foggiest how they would have voted between Trump and Clinton.

Many "conservative" women are not really conservative. They're "conservative" because they're husbands will beat them if they aren't. Don't fool yourself.

Of course there are conservative women: Laura Ingraham, Liz Cheney...but there are also many women in red states who are closeted Liberals for fear of being punched in the face by their husbands.

I’ve found out Greger is people will believe what they want to believe regardless of the facts, whether they’re right, wrong or indifferent. A lot of these I call old wife’s tales. Some examples, high voter turnout always benefits the Democrats. Wrong, stats show roughly a 50-50 split whether it’s high, low or average voter turnout. Another with Jeffrey, third party voters cost the Democrats votes, wrong, most of the time, they cost the GOP candidates votes. Mainly because the Libertarian Party is the strongest or largest of the third parties and they’re usually on all 50 state ballots. Most other third parties are on a fraction of that. But there are exceptions as in 2000 where Nader cost Gore the election. Or did he since the Democrats had a 7-point advantage in party affiliation in Nov 2000 but only a 4-point advantage among those who turned out to vote, a 39-35 democratic advantage. Bush also won independents evening things out. Same for 2016 when the democrats had a 6-point advantage in party affiliation, but just a 4-point advantage among those who turned out to vote 37-33. Trump also won the independent vote and thus the white house in a fluke election.


Regardless, from what I’ve been able to determine, the Trump factor has much more to do with the limited damage the Democrats will receive this midterm than abortion, mass shootings or anything else. I also attribute the small gain in the generic congressional ballot by the democrats to the drop in gas prices along with more shelves in the store being full than abortion or any other issue. This is me though.