Rick, here is your RCP averages of as this AM at 0800hrs. GOP up by 0.9 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Which is probably good news for the Democrats which a month ago, 3 July the Republicans had a 2.0-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Just remember the generic congressional ballot is a nationwide ballot for congress, it isn’t district by district.

Here is a site that list 7 different pundit forecasts for the House. I like to go through them and average them out as all are different. This averaging of mine is where I come up with my 18-20 seat gain which is going district by district and not relying on the nationwide generic congressional ballot.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election-predictions/

They average out to 183 safe Republican seats to 152 safe seats for the Democrats, 21 likely Republican seats to 23 for the democrats along with 13 races that lean Republican to 18 that lean democratic with 25 seats/races in the pure tossup column. If one adds up the safe, likely and lean for each party, it comes out to 217 for the Republicans and 193 for the Democrats with 25 seats/races remaining in the pure tossup column. Meaning to take control the Republicans would need to win 1 out of 25 whereas the Democrats would have to win all 25 and not lose a single tossup race.

I don’t agree with all those forecasters and pundits are putting out. I rate 200 safe seats for the GOP, 181 for the Democrats with 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts as of 3 Aug 2022. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. I place the probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.

Last edited by perotista; 08/03/22 01:16 PM.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.