Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2020 J6: Putting it all together

Remember when I posted with numbers that showed the 1-6 hearings didn’t or wasn't effectingt the midterms or public opinion, that the hearings failed to move the needle. Here’s the latest on this if one is interested in how all of America view the 1-6 hearings or if one just wants to remain in their own cocoon. Trump will get what is coming to him sooner or later, I have no doubt about that.

Jan. 6 Hearings Have No Impact on Opinion
4 in 10 would back a Trump presidential bid in 2024

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_080922/

The hearings might have little impact on opinions, but they will have an impact on getting Democrats and democrat leaners to the polls.

Fuel prices are dropping, other prices will fall soon. It's a perfect storm to counteract any red wave that may have formed up. Biden's numbers are about to start rising...Trump's numbers, on the other hand, will never rise. Republicans still trust him, but America does not and will never elect him. Keeping Trump in the public eye as a reminder of his corruption will play well for Democrats in the end.

We could be heading back toward a ten seat loss in the house....

So far the 18-20 seat house lost seems pretty firm. The red wave was always in some Republican’s imagination who was living in some fantasy land. I’d say gas prices falling helps the Democrats much more than the 1-6 hearings, abortion or anything else. At least among independents. Trump was always in the back of the minds of independents, hence, their reluctance to vote for Republicans although historical standard state they should be in droves. Trump changes the dynamics of this election tremendously. Not the 1-6 hearings. Then there’s the lousy, very poor general election candidates Trump backed, and the Republicans nominated to add to the dislike of Trump. Trump is a gift that keeps right on giving to the Democrats.

Getting folks to the polls, the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago does the same. A bunch of incentives on both sides of the aisle. The Republicans still lead in enthusiasm to go vote this midterm. But that is normal for the party out of power, they’ve always had more enthusiasm to go vote than the party that holds power.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/33oc20o9t6/econTabReport.pdf

I’m still going with 18-20 GOP pickup in the House, a 1 seat gain for the Democrats in the senate and a 3-governorships gain for the Democrats. Strange as it may be, event after event, happening after happening, 1-6 hearings, overturning Roe, war in the Ukraine, etc. these numbers have seen steady for the last six months.

We'll see...

Your polling is worthless.

I have been saying it for a long time Trump will run in 24. Despite all the polling which says his support is waning, I guarantee once he declares, there will be renewed energy and his support will increase.

Get it through ya'lls heads .... he is their God .... he is their voice .... he is the sword of vengeance they have been waiting on ....

Heileman said yesterday people need to get their head around the probability that Trump may run as an indicted person and win GOP nomination. Well he has not really wrapped his head around it ....

Wrap your head around this ..... Trump will run .... he may be indicted by the time he wins GOP nomination .... he may be convicted by time he wins the general .... he may have to take oath of office while incarcerated ... his first act as president will be to pardon himself ..... his second act will be to round up everyone who opposed him, or impeached him, or prosecuted him, etc

You say it can't happen in America .... Trump has broken every rule you say can't happen in America.

If you think it is too hard t comprehend .... then you don't know Trump at all and of what depths of depravity he is capable

I don’t worry about Trump because even if he avoids conviction and does win the Republican nomination in 2024, he’ll lose the independent vote and thus the election. That is unless the Democrats do the stupid by nominating someone who’s disliked more by independents than Trump, ALA Clinton in 2016. 70% of independents had an unfavorable view of Clinton vs. 57% of Trump. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

and this to show how much America as a whole disliked both Trump and Clinton in 2016 and didn’t want neither one to become their next president

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

But with the Democrats nominating Biden in 2020, I think they learned their lesson from 2016. The Democrats nominated someone who was attractive to independents. Whereas the GOP by staying with Trump, they remain with a candidate that can’t attract independents. Even when Trump won the independent vote in 2016, it was by a 46-42 margin over Hillary with 12% of independents voting against both Hillary and Trump. In other words, even in 2016 54% of independents voted against Trump. Hillary’s 42% along with the 12% who voted third party against both Trump and Clinton. Trump was even worse in 2020 winning but 41% of independents with 59% voting against him. Biden’s 54% with 5% voting against both Biden and Trump.

This midterm, you have independent very reluctant to vote for a party of Trump led candidates due to their dislike of Trump. Trump is saving the Democrats from a red wave. Trump is helping the Democrats retain control of the senate and gaining 3 or 4 governorships. The GOP must be the stupidest, dumbest party around not to recognize they must win independents or lose. The Democrats learned from 2016, the Republican are trying to repeat their same mistakes with the same losing results.

Unless the Democrats get a case of dumb butt and nominate another Hillary Clinton, like Harris, they have nothing to worry about in 2024. The worst thing that could happen to the Democrats for 2024 is Trump is no longer around for independents to dislike and refuse to vote for Trump led Republican candidates.

True, it's not after Labor Day yet.

Of course an indicted criminal can win the GOP nom. It's who the GOP have become.

and that statement demonstrates just how stupid the electorate is. It doesn't matter what the favorability polling results are, what mattered was whether one of those people was competent. Clearly Trump was incompetent and everyone (except the Republican Base) knew it.

What are elections? To quite a lot of folks they’re beauty contests, personality contests, popularity contests. You have 60% of the electorate who will vote for the letter behind a candidate name regardless of who that candidate is. The letter is all that matters, not the candidate. These are your Republican and Democratic base. Then there’s independents who make up roughly 40% of the electorate. Of course, you divide independents into leans, those who lean Democratic, those who lean Republican and those with no leans, what I call pure or true independents.

This last group has a long history of usually voting for the most charismatic or likable candidate. They also decide who wins and who loses at least with presidential elections. Not neither party’s base. Biden was more likeable than Trump, Biden won. Obama had a ton of charisma; he beat both McCain and Romney who weren’t at all charismatic. G.W. Bush wasn’t that charismatic, but he was a down home boy, he won over two statues in Gore and Kerry. Bill Clinton was another top charismatic guy, he won twice over G.H.W. Bush and a dour Dole. Reagan was another charismatic fellow, Carter and Mondale didn’t stand a chance. Carter in 1976 was another down-home boy, likeable, he won over a very uncharismatic, perhaps even dour Ford, etc. etc.

This reminds me what a friend of mine said about the 2016 election. People were tired of business as usual. So, they voted for Trump, a complete unknown, a businessman and reality TV show host. No one knew how he would govern. Clinton on the other hand was well known, perhaps too well known. Everyone knew exactly how she’d govern. More business as usual. Neither candidate was liked nor wanted. While independents wanted both to lose, they went with the candidate they wanted to lose the least. 54% of independents disliked both Clinton and Trump, to them the choice was between two dregs from the bottom of the barrel.

Which brings me back to elections being beauty contests, personality contest. Obnoxious, rude, uncouth won over elitist, aloof, know it all in 2016. Then an old man, dull, boring, uninspiring, no charisma whatsoever. Heck, no personality won over the obnoxious, rude uncouth candidate. But Biden came across as the adult in the room, came across as a candidate who behaved presidential, a likeable chap.

Bottom line, competency means nothing if one can’t win an election, a beauty contest, a personality contest. Which brings me to another question. Why do the Democrats want more and more people to vote when they will be voting more on personality, charisma, like and dislike that stances on the issues or even competency? These people don’t care who wins and they don’t follow politics.

How nervous is Rudy Giuliani about testifying in front of the Georgia grand jury?

Nervous enough that his lawyers tell the grand jury that he can't possibly talk to them because of a recent heart artery procedure and can't fly to Georgia. But somehow the Fulton County DA found out that Rudy purchased plane tickets to Switzerland and Italy after his procedure to travel there at the end of July.

In an effort to help Rudy out, the Fulton Country DA offered to pay for Rudy's trip to Georgia on a train or bus. Rudy Giuliani on Greyhound? As if!