Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

This I find interesting for two reasons.

Poll: Many Americans say 2nd Biden or Trump term would be 'worst thing that could happen' in 2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-trump-biden-2024-yougov-090012119.html

What I found interesting in the article, poll, these are what interested me.

1. In a striking expression of the profound pessimism and polarization currently afflicting U.S. politics — as well as a growing aversion to both parties’ presidential front-runners — a plurality of registered voters now say it would be “the worst thing that could happen” if either President Biden (39%) or former President Donald Trump (41%) were to win the White House again in 2024, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

Only about half as many voters say a second Trump term would be "the best thing that could happen" (22%). A mere 8% say the same about a second Biden term.


2. Just 16% of Americans agree that they’re “well represented by the Democratic and Republican parties," while 40% choose the alternative statement: "America needs a new political party that's positioned in the political center between the Democrats and Republicans."

Similarly, 40% "want the option to vote for a third-party candidate for president in 2024 who is positioned in the political center between the Democrats and Republicans” — including 55% of independents, 53% of political moderates, 40% of Biden voters and 40% of Trump voters. Asked to describe the priorities of elected officials, 37% of Americans say Democratic priorities are “too extreme”; 40% say the same about Republican priorities.

Joe Biden was not elected POTUS for his platform. Joe was elected for one reason only: To block Trump from being re-elected. If Manchin comes thru and gives Joe a win in the next week or so, Joe would have accomplished a lot for one term POTUS.

I'm ok with Joe bowing out for 2024 and getting someone like Newsom in.

I think you got this one right. Biden was elected to get rid of Trump. To be a transition president between Trump and whoever comes next. Nothing more, nothing less.

Newsom? Eh...okay I'll vote for him if he's the candidate but my preference is this guy.

I like Fetterman, he’s unique. But he will have been a senator for just 2 years. He in my opinion would be a great VP selection. I’m rooting for a Duckworth/Fetterman ticket in 2024.

Why? So the independents will have a ticket to vote against?

Fetterman does have snappy Twitter posts!

How do you figure? In both Duckworth and Fetterman, there’s a lot there for independents to like. Both have the ability to connect with independents whereas a lot of other do not. Obama, Bill Clinton, Reagan recently had that ability and all won the independent vote.

I’m probably getting way ahead of myself, I believe the midterms will have a direct affect on the 2024 presidential and who gets vaulted or demoted as far as both party’s candidates who will quest the nomination.

I decided to post this today as the changes in the senate over the last 2 weeks has all been in the Democrats favor. But in the house, despite the Republican generic congressional ballot lead has dropped from 2.2 a month ago and from 1.8 2 weeks ago to 0.3 today according to RCP, the number of at risk, switchable seats for the democrats rose by 1 from 40 to 41 over the same time frame.

Senate and House update 4 Aug 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – AZ D Kelly from +2 to +3, NH D Hassan from +3 to +4, NC R Budd from +2 to +1, PA D Fetterman from +3 to +4

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson +2 Republican hold R 49 D 51

Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. Pennsylvania looks like the only seat to change hands, giving the Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the senate.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 221 Democrats, 214 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the House. There are 55 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 41 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 4 Aug 2022, 180 Democratic, 200 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.

It's way too early for me to pick a favorite. I saw it floated in an opinion piece someplace that AOC should throw her hat in the ring. I didn't even click on it. Although we are somewhat ideologically aligned, I just don't think she's got the chops for the job.

But then, maybe nobody is really prepared for the level of headaches that come with the job.