Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Dang! A FANTASTIC jobs report, unemployment at 3.5%, gas prices are down, and another new all-Dem Bill passing tomorrow called the "Inflation-Fighting Act."

#LetsGoBrandon!
#SoMuchWinning!

Nice job Joe!

When the Dems get more Senators and retain the House, they can close the tax loopholes on the rich. Sinema and Munchin won't matter any longer.

With this "Inflation Reduction Bill" win later today, after Labor Day, all Dems have to do is sync their messaging and hammer into the American body electorate, that the GOP has opposed every good thing that Dems have done.

Ol' Joe is already starting to do this by critiquing Trump's presidency. This needs to continue.

#DemsCanDoThis
#2022BlueWave

One more senator is what they're going to get, all it will do is free up VP Harris to begin campaigning to replace her boss.

She will be billed as the only possible candidate to defeat DeSantis. And it will be called the most important election in our lifetimes(again).

The House is toast. You might as well get used to that instead of grasping at straws to deny it.

Otherwise your feelings are really going to be hurt on November 8th.

Harris won't be voted in as POTUS, she can forget that dream. America is not ready for a female POTUS.

Nope.



Nope x2


Looking forward to saying: I tol'ja so.

I agree, and my favorite possible candidate is Buttigieg because I think America is ready for a gay president.

But the Democratic Party and its voters might decide she is the anointed one, the only arrow in the quiver that will kill the evil DeSantis. Any "woke" candidate is gonna take a beating from the Reeps. Nobody in their right mind would call her "woke".

Was it the abortion issue or was it the drop in gas prices that allowed the Democrats to close the gap in the generic congressional ballot? Going by hard numbers from 24 June-24 July which showed little to no change in either the generic congressional ballot and or the number of competitive/at risk/switchable seats in the house during that time frame. If the overturning of Roe was to cause a change in voting preference, it should have shown by the end of July. However, once gas prices started to drop, at the end of July we had that change in the generic congressional ballot of where 2.5-point lead for the GOP dropped to an 0.1 lead. Gas dropped from around 5 dollars a gallon down to around 4 dollars over the last two weeks. The abortion issue has been with us since 24 June which led to no change in either the generic or the number of competitive/at risk seats until gas prices began to drop.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

However, since 24 June to 24 July while gas prices remained at around 5 dollars the at-risk seats failed to change, the same as no change in the generic congressional ballot. Even with the drop in gas prices since 24 July to today the number of competitive/at risk/switchable seats for the Democrats went up 2 from 40 to 42, the GOP at risk seats rose from 13 to 14 while the generic congressional ballot has become a tie. The question then becomes, was it the abortion issue or the drop in gas prices or perhaps neither or both that caused the drop in the generic ballot while at risk seats remained basically the same. Could the drop in the generic congressional ballot come from pro-abortion folks deciding on voting Democratic in the northeast? That wouldn’t change the district by district numbers as there’re few Republicans up there, example Massachusetts 8 dem, 0 Rep, or on the west coast, which also has few Republican members of congress. Democratic strong holds. The change would have to take place in the south, the Midwest and the plain states to affect the district by district numbers where the Democrats are outnumbered except in states like Illinois. It does the Democrats no good if instead of winning their districts 60-40 in the Northeast and west coast, they now win them 70-30 or 75-25. Which would account for the generic ballot to become even while district by district remains the same.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election-predictions/

Remember, the generic congressional ballot is nationwide, not district by district. The old real estate motto or slogan, location, location, location applies to the house elections and could explain the tie in the generic congressional ballot vs. the district by district counting.

Speaking of location, location, location, I decided to compare how the different regions of the country plan on voting this November along with how the abortion issue is felt region by region. First the generic congressional ballot by region. This ties into my previous post about the Northeast west coast having few Republicans while the Midwest except for Illinois and the south has few democrats.

Northeast 55% Democrat 32% Republican
Midwest 36% Democrat 45% Republican
South 38% Democrat 43% Republican
West 48% Democrat 35% Republican
Nationwide 44% Democrat 45% Republican

Second the abortion issue – To make this simpler, I narrowed this down to two categories, 1. Abortion legal in all cases and or legal in most cases except late term abortion. Category 2 All abortion illegal or legal only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape. No other reason or circumstance allowed.

Northeast 66% all or most cases, 34% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape.
Midwest 55% all or most cases, 45% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape.
South 53% all or most cases, 45% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape.
West 62% all or most cases, 37% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape.
Nationwide 61% all or most cases, 39% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape.

I will probably get a lot of feed back that having abortion legal in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest and rape still makes those people pro-legal abortion or pro-choice. But how many of the pro-legal abortion crowd would accept abortion being legal only in the case of the mother’s life, incest and rape with no other exceptions or circumstances? I would say hardly any, which allows me to place the mother’s life, incest and rape along side of abortion being illegal in all case.

Better yet: Was it the lame-ass conspiratorial, insurrection-loving Republicans running for office and in office to influence sane, decent voters to say: I'm not voting for those creeps!