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Was it the abortion issue or was it the drop in gas prices that allowed the Democrats to close the gap in the generic congressional ballot? Going by hard numbers from 24 June-24 July which showed little to no change in either the generic congressional ballot and or the number of competitive/at risk/switchable seats in the house during that time frame. If the overturning of Roe was to cause a change in voting preference, it should have shown by the end of July. However, once gas prices started to drop, at the end of July we had that change in the generic congressional ballot of where 2.5-point lead for the GOP dropped to an 0.1 lead. Gas dropped from around 5 dollars a gallon down to around 4 dollars over the last two weeks. The abortion issue has been with us since 24 June which led to no change in either the generic or the number of competitive/at risk seats until gas prices began to drop.
However, since 24 June to 24 July while gas prices remained at around 5 dollars the at-risk seats failed to change, the same as no change in the generic congressional ballot. Even with the drop in gas prices since 24 July to today the number of competitive/at risk/switchable seats for the Democrats went up 2 from 40 to 42, the GOP at risk seats rose from 13 to 14 while the generic congressional ballot has become a tie. The question then becomes, was it the abortion issue or the drop in gas prices or perhaps neither or both that caused the drop in the generic ballot while at risk seats remained basically the same. Could the drop in the generic congressional ballot come from pro-abortion folks deciding on voting Democratic in the northeast? That wouldn’t change the district by district numbers as there’re few Republicans up there, example Massachusetts 8 dem, 0 Rep, or on the west coast, which also has few Republican members of congress. Democratic strong holds. The change would have to take place in the south, the Midwest and the plain states to affect the district by district numbers where the Democrats are outnumbered except in states like Illinois. It does the Democrats no good if instead of winning their districts 60-40 in the Northeast and west coast, they now win them 70-30 or 75-25. Which would account for the generic ballot to become even while district by district remains the same.
Remember, the generic congressional ballot is nationwide, not district by district. The old real estate motto or slogan, location, location, location applies to the house elections and could explain the tie in the generic congressional ballot vs. the district by district counting.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
