Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

2022 Dem bumpersticker:

After 16 hours of voting, the U.S. Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act, positioning Democrats on the verge of a legislative victory for several key party agenda items, with Kamala Harris as the tie breaker.

All the GOP has to run on in 2022 is that we're the party of white nationalist fascism and we WILL take your Rights away.

When you’re the party out of power, you are running as the alternative to the party in power. The party out of power doesn’t have to stand for a thing or run on anything. It is what the party in power has done or hasn’t done to either to make folks happy with them with the voters wanting to maintain the status quo, keeping them in power or mad at them wanting to give the alternative party a chance. It’s quite simple.

Moral of the story don’t make independents mad or angry at you or take them out of their comfort zone if you’re the party in power. Clinton did in 1994, Bush in 2006, Obama in 2010 and Trump in 2018. The result, a wave election against the party in power.

1994 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 56-42 margin. Republicans gained 54 house seats.
2006 independents voted Democratic congressional candidates by a 57-39 over Republicans. Democrats gained 33 house seats.
2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates. Republicans gained 63 house seats.
2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin. Democrats gained 44 house seats.

The difference between 2022 and the above is independents aren’t angry, they dissatisfied, unhappy, but not angry. Hence, no red wave. Independents also don’t trust a Trump led alternative to the party in power they’re very dissatisfied with. Much like the 2020 election, we’ll get a split decision. 2020, the democrats won the presidency, lost down ballot. 2022, the Republicans take back the house, the democrats retain the senate.

That gum is really losing its flavor.

2022 in NOT a normal cycle thanks to Donald Trump. Past election performance is not indicative of future results. I can't make this fact more clear.

The choice this November is global inflation or rights-taking fascism. Fascism is worse - they'll come for you too eventually.

Every, single Republican in the House and Senate voted NOT to cap insulin at $35.00. THAT's a problem for the GOP in November.

In fact, Chuck Grassley is already lying about it and saying he DID vote for the cap and that the Dems blocked it. (Reality is it's the other way around). THAT in and of itself tells you that there is a problem with how the GOP just voted. I suppose the 88 year old coot can always claim dementia.



Lying by elected officials is not freedom of speech - it's an abuse of power. Your mileage may vary.

Ever hear that old joke? How do you tell a politician is lying, his lips are moving.

Past election performance would guarantee even bigger losses for Democrats in November.

Thanks to Trump, no red wave has appeared and the midterm losses will be minimal.

And as far as "normal" election cycles go...we can be assured that Democrats will come out in fair numbers to vote for Democrats. We can also surmise, given the evidence before us, that Republicans will come out in fair numbers to vote for Republicans.

Independents will vote in moderate numbers for both parties. That's pretty normal stuff.

It's up to the local and state candidates to make their case before the court of public opinion.

How does Donald Trump change anything? Besides getting Dems a little bump from independents who still hate him.

What I have found Greger is that past election results mean little since the arrival of Trump. By historical standards, Trump should have lost in 2016. Only states like Michigan, Pennsylvania which had voted 6 straight presidential elections for Democrats along with Wisconsin which voted 8 straight times for the Democratic candidate went to Trump in 2016. What were the odds all three would buck their historical trend which had been in place for so long? I got all three of those states wrong. For Trump to win in 2016 the earth, moon, sun, all the planets along with all the galaxies had to align perfectly which they did.

2022, so far at lest is another election where historical standards don’t apply. With Biden at 39% overall approval, history says the Democrats should lose 40 plus seats in the house, 6 senate seats along with 5 governors. A red wave in other words. Ain’t gonna happen. A loss of 18-20 house seats, way below a wave election standard, a gain of a senate seat, maybe two. A gain of 3 or possibly 4 governors, what the heck is going on? Of course, my answer is Trump. Because of him the GOP has four lousy senate candidates in states the Republicans should win along with a couple of governor candidates. Then there’s independents who really dislike Trump. Historical standards are being turned upside down.

2020 was another election where historical standards failed big time. Winning the presidency by 7 plus million votes one would expect coat tails, a pickup of 30-40 house seats instead of losing 13 which the democrats did. Not only that, the democrats lost a governor and 2 state legislatures. 2020 was the first time since 1884 where a candidate wins the popular vote via the presidency and loses house seats. The big difference is Biden won by 7 plus million and lost 13 house sets. Grover Cleveland won by a mere 58,000 and lost 8 house seats. No comparison. Crazy times we live in.

Mostly in favor of democrats at this point.

Trump was a fluke and guaranteed to go down in flames from the very first time he descended that escalator making unfounded racist claims.

He was the revenge of a racist nation against the former Black president and everything he stood for.

If not for the Pandemic he would still be the president today. But he fumbled that ball so badly that he lost all but the most hardcore partisans. America was sick of his antics.

The coming elections are not a referendum on Trump and he's not a candidate. Everybody knows what he did and everybody knows he's guilty, whether they admit it or not.

Everybody also knows we're in the throes of a worldwide shortage of random things, unreasonable price fluctuations, and rising interest rates, which are mostly the result of pandemic-related changes in demand and supply, none of which have anything to do with Trump. Or even Biden really, unless you need a political scapegoat,

The coming elections are not about Donald Trump. They are about current conditions and events in the US and how much confidence America has in the current party vs their faith in the other party doing a better job...

Democrats are going to perform very well in November. They aren't going to keep the House
but they're gonna do better than history says they should.

Oh, and the cool thing is that partisan Republicans believe a red wave is inevitable and they are going to take both houses by wide margins!

They'll be screaming about rigged elections again, but that horse has left the barn.

Nothing makes me happier than imagining the tears of disappointment in the eyes of my enemies.

It will do the Democrats no harm to lose the House by a narrow margin and may be a plus as far as 2024 goes. Biden can more or less rest on his laurels and rule by decree for the second half of his term, and if House Republicans act foolishly Trumpish enough over the next two years, independents will remember their hate for Trump and pin it onto DeSantis.