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2022 in NOT a normal cycle thanks to Donald Trump. Past election performance is not indicative of future results. I can't make this fact more clear.
Past election performance would guarantee even bigger losses for Democrats in November.
Thanks to Trump, no red wave has appeared and the midterm losses will be minimal.
And as far as "normal" election cycles go...we can be assured that Democrats will come out in fair numbers to vote for Democrats. We can also surmise, given the evidence before us, that Republicans will come out in fair numbers to vote for Republicans.
Independents will vote in moderate numbers for both parties. That's pretty normal stuff.
It's up to the local and state candidates to make their case before the court of public opinion.
How does Donald Trump change anything? Besides getting Dems a little bump from independents who still hate him.