Numbers wise today, I say you’re correct Greger. But I still think Trump is the invisible elephant in the room. With Trump’s endorsements along with his followers going along with his endorsements, mainly for revenge. The Republicans have 4 which should be easily beaten candidates running for senate seats. Would the Republicans nominate them without Trump’s backing? I don’t know since he did back them and usually Republicans go along with anything Trump.

Pre-Trump, when a president had an approval rating of around 40%, independents swamped the out of power party with their votes into the in-power party. They went and voted big for the party out of power.
1994 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 56-42 margin.
2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans.
2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates.
2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin.

Why not in 2022? Have independents all of a sudden become much more politically and worldly smart which they weren’t in the four above listed examples? I doubt that, they’re not political junkies and rarely follow the day to day grind of politics and goings on Washington D.C. It’s true, Trump isn’t on the ballot, but his specter hangs over this election big time to include backing and getting nominated lousy candidates for the general election.

Independents think both major parties suck. Perhaps, although independents think Biden and company has done a very lousy job, they don’t want a return to anything Trump or his backed candidates, party. Maybe? It seems I’ve been trying to make sense of this upcoming election, what is happening with it as it shouldn’t be happening, the only explanation is Trump. Not that independents all of a sudden struck gold in the political brain matter game. 45% of independents still blame Biden a lot for inflation, rising prices, 33% blame Biden some. Just looking at that, it doesn’t seem to me independents just got smarter with a snap of the fingers.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k4maehoie4/econTabReport.pdf

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.