So far the 18-20 seat house lost seems pretty firm. The red wave was always in some Republican’s imagination who was living in some fantasy land. I’d say gas prices falling helps the Democrats much more than the 1-6 hearings, abortion or anything else. At least among independents. Trump was always in the back of the minds of independents, hence, their reluctance to vote for Republicans although historical standard state they should be in droves. Trump changes the dynamics of this election tremendously. Not the 1-6 hearings. Then there’s the lousy, very poor general election candidates Trump backed, and the Republicans nominated to add to the dislike of Trump. Trump is a gift that keeps right on giving to the Democrats.

Getting folks to the polls, the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago does the same. A bunch of incentives on both sides of the aisle. The Republicans still lead in enthusiasm to go vote this midterm. But that is normal for the party out of power, they’ve always had more enthusiasm to go vote than the party that holds power.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/33oc20o9t6/econTabReport.pdf

I’m still going with 18-20 GOP pickup in the House, a 1 seat gain for the Democrats in the senate and a 3-governorships gain for the Democrats. Strange as it may be, event after event, happening after happening, 1-6 hearings, overturning Roe, war in the Ukraine, etc. these numbers have seen steady for the last six months.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.