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I don’t worry about Trump because even if he avoids conviction and does win the Republican nomination in 2024, he’ll lose the independent vote and thus the election. That is unless the Democrats do the stupid by nominating someone who’s disliked more by independents than Trump, ALA Clinton in 2016. 70% of independents had an unfavorable view of Clinton vs. 57% of Trump. Questions 10 and 11.
But with the Democrats nominating Biden in 2020, I think they learned their lesson from 2016. The Democrats nominated someone who was attractive to independents. Whereas the GOP by staying with Trump, they remain with a candidate that can’t attract independents. Even when Trump won the independent vote in 2016, it was by a 46-42 margin over Hillary with 12% of independents voting against both Hillary and Trump. In other words, even in 2016 54% of independents voted against Trump. Hillary’s 42% along with the 12% who voted third party against both Trump and Clinton. Trump was even worse in 2020 winning but 41% of independents with 59% voting against him. Biden’s 54% with 5% voting against both Biden and Trump.
This midterm, you have independent very reluctant to vote for a party of Trump led candidates due to their dislike of Trump. Trump is saving the Democrats from a red wave. Trump is helping the Democrats retain control of the senate and gaining 3 or 4 governorships. The GOP must be the stupidest, dumbest party around not to recognize they must win independents or lose. The Democrats learned from 2016, the Republican are trying to repeat their same mistakes with the same losing results.
Unless the Democrats get a case of dumb butt and nominate another Hillary Clinton, like Harris, they have nothing to worry about in 2024. The worst thing that could happen to the Democrats for 2024 is Trump is no longer around for independents to dislike and refuse to vote for Trump led Republican candidates.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
