I agree the Trump factor has prevented a red wave. The Trump factor is the key to the Democrats retaining control of the senate and gaining 3-4 governors. The Trump factor is what is holding the losses in the house to under the red wave criteria of 30 plus seats. But the Trump factor as of today isn’t going to stop the loss of the House. The Republicans need a net gain of just 4 seats. The important numbers are the competitive, switchable, at risk districts, 56 of them held by 42 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 19 Aug 2022, 179 Democratic, 200 Republican. Which translates into a probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.

One big reason is retirements and those Democrats running for high office. 22 Democrats have retired vs. 10 for the Republicans. 9 current house Democrats are running for higher office vs. 8 for the Republicans. Open seats which are much easier to switch than beating an incumbent stand at 31 Democrats, 18 Republicans.

Another number, the Democrats have 179 safe seats which aren’t going change, which means the Democrats in order to retain the senate must win 39 of the 56 contested seats which the Republicans need to win 18 out of 56. Also keep in mind the Democrats won the gerrymandering wars during redistricting, a plus 10 seats. Without those 10 additional gerrymandered safe seats for the Democrats, there would be no question or hope for the Democrats retaining the house.If my some miricle the democrats retain control of the house, it will be because of gerrymandering regardless of the Trump factor.

The senate is a whole different ball game. Thanks to Trump the GOP fielded a bunch of very poor general election candidates. Hats off to Trump for helping the Democrats there.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.