Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Uh...oh! Spaghetti-ohs! This might make a couple of you really mad!

Democrats think they can defy history and hold the House in 2022 — here's why

I agree the Trump factor has prevented a red wave. The Trump factor is the key to the Democrats retaining control of the senate and gaining 3-4 governors. The Trump factor is what is holding the losses in the house to under the red wave criteria of 30 plus seats. But the Trump factor as of today isn’t going to stop the loss of the House. The Republicans need a net gain of just 4 seats. The important numbers are the competitive, switchable, at risk districts, 56 of them held by 42 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 19 Aug 2022, 179 Democratic, 200 Republican. Which translates into a probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.

One big reason is retirements and those Democrats running for high office. 22 Democrats have retired vs. 10 for the Republicans. 9 current house Democrats are running for higher office vs. 8 for the Republicans. Open seats which are much easier to switch than beating an incumbent stand at 31 Democrats, 18 Republicans.

Another number, the Democrats have 179 safe seats which aren’t going change, which means the Democrats in order to retain the senate must win 39 of the 56 contested seats which the Republicans need to win 18 out of 56. Also keep in mind the Democrats won the gerrymandering wars during redistricting, a plus 10 seats. Without those 10 additional gerrymandered safe seats for the Democrats, there would be no question or hope for the Democrats retaining the house.If my some miricle the democrats retain control of the house, it will be because of gerrymandering regardless of the Trump factor.

The senate is a whole different ball game. Thanks to Trump the GOP fielded a bunch of very poor general election candidates. Hats off to Trump for helping the Democrats there.

Unless decent folks who normally vote one way decide to "throw the bums out" and vote for decent human beings to make good choices for them.

No, Rick, I'd be delighted if the Dems held the house! I'd be delighted if Trump was locked up for the rest of his life, too!

I just don't think either is going to happen so I don't fantasize about them.

Pero has pointed out many times what the axioms to the 2022 election equation are and his prediction for the outcome.

I think Dems might beat the odds and perform better than Pero suggests, but still not well enough to keep the House. I base this solely on events that have not happened but might.

If Biden's numbers go up House-seat losses will come down. But right now, if the election were held today...Pero's prediction is probably dead on.

It's not what any of us wants but it's the most realistic election forecast your gonna find anywhere.

I understand what you’re saying, but it doesn’t work that way. I go by cold hard numbers, not the heart. History shows that those who affiliate or call themselves Republicans and or democrats will vote 94% of the time on average for candidates of their party. It doesn’t matter if the other party is promising things good for you or doing things that are good for you or not. Party loyalty remains supreme. 94% of Republicans voted for Trump in 2020, 94% of democrats voted for Biden. 2018 midterms, 94% of Republicans again voted for GOP candidates, 95% of Democrats voted for their candidates. 2016 was a bit of an anomaly where 89% of Democrats voted for Clinton, 88% of Republicans for Trump and so on back to Reagan. All told, on average, 94% each party’s base will vote for their candidates.

Independents are all over the place.
2000 independents voted for G.W. Bush 47-46 over Gore, independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 49-47 over Democratic congressional candidates.
2002 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 51-45 over Democratic congressional candidates.
2004 independents voted for Bush by a 49-48 margin over Kerry. Independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 50-46 margin over Democratic congressional candidates.
2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans.
2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain. Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates.
2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates
2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin, Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates.
2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates
2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47.
2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin.
2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 49-48.

Those who identify with either major party, their votes are set in stone. Independents are finicky and as you can see above, are all over the place. Today, 40% of independents say they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidates vs. 36% who say they’ll vote for the Democratic congressional candidates with a whopping 24% undecided, not sure. It’s different in the senate, 42% of independents state they’ll vote Democratic in the senate vs. 32% for Republican senate candidates with the rest undecided, not sure. The big difference is only 34 states have senate elections this year vs. all 50 for the house. Which state have senate elections is why there are a big difference in how independents plan on voting for the house and the senate. 16 states don’t have a senate election this year.

Pero, you might find this article interesting and enlightening. It's what I've been saying for a year now.

STUDY: What Americans really think

looks like subscription only.

What is it you've been saying for a year?

It’s Axios- it’s not subscription.

What I have been saying is that people vote differently than how they say they vote when in public.

I clicked on the link, they want my e-mail address before I can proceed. I didn’t proceed. But yes, to a certain extent you’re correct. There’s always a few that vote differently, some like lying to pollsters. This is one reason for the margin of error in the polls. Most of the polls I cite have a margin of error of plus or minus 3% which is average for most election polls. Earlier I stated independents plan on voting for Republican congressional candidate by a 40-36 margin. A 4-point lead for the GOP. Factor in the MOE, the lead may be as high as 7 points or as low as 1 point.

If you take the 2020 presidential election, RCP which averages out all polls had Biden winning by 7.2 points. He won by 4.5. So what RCP was telling us with a MOE of plus or minus 3 points, was Biden was ahead somewhere in-between 4.2 points and 10.2 points. Since the final election result was within the margin of error, RCP polling average was deemed accurate. No poll is going to hit the final results on the button. If they do, that poll was extremely lucky, winning the lottery lucky.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

The problem is most people have never heard of the margin of error and thus don’t factor it into the equation. All polls have a MOE. It depends on the sample size.

A better and more up to date example. RCP has the generic congressional ballot as a tie.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Looking at this using the MOE, the Republicans may be ahead by 3 or down by 3. Another thing to look for is who was polled. The poll with give you an A for all Adults, a RV for registered voters and an LV for likely voters. When it comes to elections, always give priority or more trust to the polls who poll LV or likely voters. Registered voters are more accurate than polls that poll all adults. Of the 8 polls RCP shows, 4 were of likely voters and 4 of registered voters. More registered voters will stay home and not vote than likely voters.

A word of advice, for elections pay much more attention to polls that poll likely voters. For opinions on the issues such as abortion for example, then all adults will be more accurate. Although all adults won’t go vote. But all adults lets you know how people feel about an issue although only about half will go vote.