Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

The NYT poll which started this thread stated the same thing on July 13, 2022 - six weeks ago. I'm glad that RCP has finally caught up.

McConnell says Republicans may not win Senate control, citing 'candidate quality'

Candidate quality? Ya' think?!?

GOP'ers screaming and yelling "Defund the FBI" probably won't help them win races either.

Yep Rick, very poor general election candidates indeed. All thanks to Trump. PA, WI now look like they’re going Democratic. That’s a 2-seat pickup in the senate. NC could make it a three-seat gain for a 53-47 Democratic advantage. Although Budd in NC has a very slight advantage today. Although going by district by district and not the nationwide generic congressional ballot, the Republicans still look like solid favorites to retake the house with a gain of 18-20 seats. If you go back to my forecasts, I always had the Democrats retaining the senate. Keep an eye on Ohio, Tim Ryan is even with Vance in the polls in that very Republican leaning state. I don’t think that’ll last, but it keeps the race interesting.

Hollering about defunding the FBI isn’t about to gain any votes from independents either. You’re correct about that. Independents don’t like Trump to begin with, they also support the raid. Most would like to be rid of Trump. But a word of caution here, whereas Trump is an in your face obnoxious, rude, uncouth, a very distasteful and unlikeable individual, once he’s out of the picture, that leaves an opening for someone exactly like Trump, but with a more pleasant personality. A more tactful, political savvy figure, a more likeable individual who behaves and acts like an adult and presidential Someone without Trump’s baggage to emerge. Someone who has the ability to put the Democrats behind the political eight ball and attract independents which Trump can’t and won’t. Without Trump you’d have more viable Republican general election candidates in states like PA, OH, NC, GA, AZ with the GOP favored in those states instead of being the underdog.

DeSantis is a dream candidate for the deplorable crowd. If he was a Democrat we'd have this thing locked up!

He's out stumping for those Republican candidates in tough races you mentioned. It won't help them much, but it increases his own chances of winning their votes down the line in the primaries. He leads his own opponents by 7-8 points so there's little question about his reelection.

Nixon used that route to gain the 1968 GOP nomination. After Goldwater’s debacle in 1964 in which the GOP lost 36 house seats giving the Democrats a 295-140 edge in the house and a 68-32 margin in the senate, Nixon hit the campaign trail hard in 1966 campaigning for Republicans across the country. A lot of Republicans owed Nixon for their seats. The GOP won 47 house seats in 1966 narrowing the democratic advantage to 248-187 and won 4 senate seats leaving the democrats in charge of the senate 64-36.

DeSantis usually is a smart political cookie. I think we all know that Trump is about to meet his Waterloo either through all these investigations and maybe indictments or a very poor showing for the Republicans this midterm which Trump is responsible. One way or another, the door seems wide open for DeSantis. All he must do is win reelection this fall. Election wise, Trump has become the Democrats biggest and best asset. Without Trump and his revenge tour you were probably looking at around 40 house seats and 5 senate seats lost. With Trump succeeding in his revenge tour throughout the GOP primaries along with his ever present baggage, the Democrats are poised to keep the senate and expand their majority, gain another 3-4 governors and limit the losses in the house to 18-20 seats going by todays numbers. Perhaps less. All thanks to Trump, the gift that keeps right on giving to the democrats.

Almost wants one to think Trump is a democrat plant within the GOP.

Yes! Stifling 1A free speech in Florida is such a smart political move!

Trump voters want revenge for the FBI “raid” on Trump’s bed bug infested compound - and selecting DeSantis over Trump should Trump enter the race - even from jail, will not satisfy their blood lust for revenge.

Even if it is struck down in court it won him followers and votes. He's a Harvard Law grad, a constitutional scholar, so to speak...He knows it won't stand, it was purely a political maneuver to win votes away from Donald Trump.

Votes are what this game is all about and he's got folks tripping all over themselves to vote for him!

It was abhorrent, but it was a smart political move.

I agree Greger. It all boils down to winning elections. Florida independents are saying they’ll vote for DeSantis over Crist 51-39 and for DeSantis over Fried 51-35.

https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/UNF%20PORL%20August%20Survey.pdf

Florida has a PVI of R+3, Republicans slightly out number Democrats down there. Still, Florida is a very close state in terms of numbers for each major party. One can say the two major parties cancel each other out depending on turnout, independents determine who wins.