Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Yes, yes, we've read all of that before...ad nauseum. And, has been stated ad nauseum, we're not in a normal election cycle.

...and has been pointed out, there are some voters that vote differently than what they state publicly. Hopefully, there are a lot more than "some" and enough to make a difference.

Inflation goes away after a few months or a year.
Fascism usually doesn't go away without a war. Absent that it may remain for a generation or two, and history doesn't show much hope for countries that emerge from seventy years of fascism, the damage it does may be permanent.

Joe's numbers will creep up as the economy improves. And the economy always improves.

But it won't improve enough by November 8th to save the house.

After that though, it should continue to improve(by fits and starts) for the next two years which will put Dems in a good position to keep the Whitehouse and regain the House in 2024 against the fascist upstart from Floridaa.

All Democrats lack is a candidate to rally behind. Biden is a fine president who is at least trying to do the right thing for the American people, but he's not liable to be our next president. Nor is his VP.

I see exciting times ahead for Democrats amid all this talk of doom and gloom. Some new faces, and new adventures ahead.

Granted, not a normal election cycle. If we were in a normal election cycle with a president at around 40% approval, the Republicans would be gaining 40 plus seats in the house, 6 senate seats along with 5 or so Governors. Here’s what happened in a normal election cycle where a president was around 40% overall approval.

Biden 2022 40% ?????? projected loss of 18-20 house seats, gain of 2 senate seats, 3 governors as of 22 August
Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats, 6 governors
Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats, 4 governors
G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats, 6 governors
Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats, 1 governor

Needless to say, this cycle isn’t normal because of Trump. Trump is doing all he can to help the Democrats win this midterm. If I didn’t know better, I’d say Trump was a Democratic plant in the Republican Party. Without Trump, the above would be happening. Trump is the Democrats greatest asset election wise. Why are the Democrats trying to eliminate their greatest asset? From an election standpoint, it doesn’t make sense. Unless one takes in the revenge factor. Trump seeking revenge again lifelong, loyal Republicans who weren’t loyal enough to him. Thus, causing the Republicans to nominate a bunch of very poor, unqualified, bum candidates, easy to beat in the general election strictly for revenge. Not for winning elections. Then the Democrats out for revenge against Trump. But the Democrats have come up with quality, very good toward outstanding candidates for the general election. Their revenge consists of doing away with the Democrats greatest election asset and throwing him in jail. Election wise, this makes no sense. But I always view politics through the eyes of an election. Does this event, this person, this happening help or hurt my party’s chances in the upcoming election.

I leave the partisan revenge politics to those who love doing it. This is one of the main reasons I’m a swing voter, never having belonged to either major party. I detest partisan political party politics.

Swing voters in Florida looking to replace Rubio and DeSantis.

DeSantis is favored by 7-8 points Rubio by 6. They aren't close races no matter who anybody wants to replace.

Sure about that Greger?

Woman are voting - and the GOP are terrified

Good!

McConnell says the odds are 50-50 for the GOP retaking the senate. I beg to differ. I’m looking at a 52-48 Democratic senate going by today’s numbers.

Republicans have '50-50' chance of recapturing Senate -McConnell

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-50-50-chance-recapturing-174647804.html

As for Florida, Rubio has an average 8 point lead over Demmings while DeSantis is 9 points ahead. The given odds are around 90% for each one to win. Of course all of this is dynamic and changes constantly. But as of today, both Rubio and DeSantis look safe. Either one goes by cold hard numbers, figures and facts or one goes by the heart.

Cold hard numbers as of today still show going district by district the GOP retaking control of the senate. AZ 2, FL 7, FL 13, MI 10 look like they are almost certain to flip from Democratic to Republican which would with no other changes give the GOP a 218-217 lead. 6 Democratic districts are leaning toward becoming Republican, AZ 6, IA 3, NJ 7, PA 7, TX 15 and WI 3. There are no Republican held district in the certain to change, flip column while the GOP has 3 Republicans districts that are leaning Democratic, IL 13, MI 3 and TX 34. There are as of today, 26 currently democratic held districts and 8 Republican held districts in the pure tossup column. Feel free to do the math.

Welp, on August 18, 2022 McConnell was saying on Twitter that the GOP will lose the Senate due to "the quality of candidates."

The poor ol' fella doesn't seem to know if he's coming or going.