Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

McConnell said the samething in a few news articles about losing the senate due to poor quality candidates. I even posted one here. I imagine Trump or someone from the RNC got hold of old Mitch telling him to put on a more positive face. But reality is reality. It doesn't take a political rocket scientist to view the present numbers and come to the conclusion the GOP isn't about to regain the senate unless something happens between now and election day.

And the Dems aren't going to keep the House unless something happens between now and election day.

I was hoping to see oil prices tumble to help raise Joe's numbers and lower the House losses...but the weather and geopolitics aren't cooperating.

The drought's over in Dallas! This time of year the most likely thing to "happen" is to see a US city destroyed by a hurricane.

The house numbers, I doubt will change much basically because of the difference in retirements and house incumbents running for higher office. As of August 2022, 50 representatives, 31 Democrats and 19 Republicans have decided to retire, 18 of whom (ten Democrats and eight Republicans) are seeking another office. Which means the democrats must defend 31 open seats with no incumbents vs. 19 for the Republicans. Open seats are much easier to switch or flip.

While the Democrats have closed a 2.5-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in July to take a 0.2-point lead on 17 Aug, the GOP has now regained the lead. Although it’s is a very slight 0.2 points. What hasn’t changed is the number of safe and at risk, switchable seats even though the generic congressional ballot has fluctuated. They remain the same as in July, 42 Democratic competitive, at risk, switchable seats to the Republicans 14. Safe seats are 179 Democratic, 200 Republican. Leaving the probable net gain for the Republicans at 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

It could have been much worse if the democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering wars. The drop in the price of a gallon of gas probably was the main reason for the Democrats being able to take the lead in the generic. But the generic is a nationwide figure, not district by district. It means little to nothing if in places like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California etc. the democrats upped from winning percentages in districts from 60-40 to 65-35 in those heavily democratic states. The national numbers would reflect a trend toward the democrats, which district by district wouldn’t, they remain the same.

I think the senate is the most important chamber to retain. Biden then can still have all his nominations confirmed even though no legislation will get done. Add the governorships, all in all, it is a very good midterm if these numbers hold up for the Democrats. I’d classify that as a major Democratic victory.

Me too, but the Democrats seem to be struggling with it. Wanting to keep all of the marbles all the time.

Perhaps better than the Reeps who appear to have lost theirs altogether...

LOL, I just got my chuckle for today. The GOP lost their marbles ever since Trump came on the scene.

Nah, they were batshite crazy even before Trump or he would never have been elected.

There's a good reason I vote for Democrats. And a good reason I don't want to be one of them. Actually several but I'd have to edit the last sentence so f*ck it.

Maybe it was Will Rogers who said "I'd never be a member of an organized political party, that's why I'm a Democrat."

Imagine we're talking about Dred Scott right now INSTEAD of Roe and people are on the news telling each other that black people and their friends in the other racial communities that America will normalize Dred seven months from now.
Do you really think people would forget?
That's what Republican "strategists" are saying right now, the American people will "forget all about the attack on Roe" by November and that Republicans will sail on to easy victory in the House and Senate.

These same “strategists” thought a failed, corrupt, immoral businessman as POTUS with an incompetent “ready, fire, aim” approach was a good idea as well. Look at how THAT turned out!

Not quite sure what you’re getting at Rick. All the political strategists, prognosticators, forecasters, whatever thought and had Hillary Clinton winning to include me. I’d say 4 reasons why Trump won.

1. Voter turnout, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 5 points in Nov 2016, but only by 3 points among those who turned out to vote. The Republicans had the higher voter turnout percentage. Lack of the Democratic base to turn out and vote in the same percentage as Republicans cost Clinton the election. Trump was able to inspire his base more than Hillary did to get out and vote. Trump was definitely the more energetic candidate and his voters more enthusiastic about voting for him than Hillary’s.

2. Independents, the non-affiliated, less to non-partisan group of voters who made up 25% of those who voted. They voted for Trump 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. Independents disliked Hillary more than they disliked Trump enabling Trump to win the deciding states by narrow margins and thus the presidency. This indicated the importance of being able to attract the independent voter. Both major parties basically ignored independents in 2016 concentrating only on their base.

3. Trump won the anti-vote. Those who vote against a candidate, never for one which made up 26% of those who voted. Trump won the anti-voters 55-42 over Clinton. These are the people who vote for the candidate they least want to lose, not win, but least want to lose. These voters don’t want either major party candidate to win, they want both to lose. But in 2016, this group of voters wanted Hillary to lose more than they wanted Trump to lose.

4. Clinton laziness, she let Trump both outcampaign her and out work her. She had a very inept campaign strategy, she thought money alone was enough to win it for her. Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million. The first time since 1964 that the presidential candidate who raised and spent the most money lost the election. Amazing that Clinton had twice as much money and still lost.

This underscores the importance of money in all of our elections. Usually the candidate with or the party with the most money wins the elections. Not only presidential, but for congress as well as in state level elections like governors, senators, secretary of state, etc.

What I am getting at is that Trump even winning the Republican nomination in 2016 and 2020 says a lot about the GOP. None of it good.


Hillary lost the moment James Comey put his thumb on the election scale announcing a new look at her, then saying "never mind" a few weeks later.

I didn't vote in 2016 - choosing which sociopath was better than the other isn't my style.



Having stated that, Hillary probably would have been better of the two sociopaths - in hindsight.