Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Turns out that Congress has not always changed after the following midterm elections. In last hundred years, 1902, 1906, 1914, 1922, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1942, 1950, 1958, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1990 and 1998 there were no changes - that's 19 mid-terms.

Only six mid-terms changed Congress in the past 100 years. This "wisdom" the Congress flips has only been in the last 30 years. When the Washington press and pundits corps talk about history working against the Democrats, they mean history going back about 30 years. This period too will end at some point, just as similar periods ended.

From 1933 until 1994 the Democrats controlled congress in 58 out of 62 years which included 40 straight years 1955-1994. But that was when the Democrats were the big tent party with both their conservative and liberal wings. The solid conservative Democratic south. Back when the Democrats made up on average 45% of the electorate from FDR until Reagan with two years making up 51% in 1961 and 1964.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/

Since Reagan the Democratic share of the electorate has dropped from 45% average down to 29% today, which explains why flipping congress has become more normal than in the past. 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018 are the years they flipped, or wave elections happened. Independents has also risen from 20% during JFK up to 42% today while Republicans have stayed around 27% average going up and down a few points during this time.

I'm old enough to remember the old conservative yeller dog democrats of the south who would vote for an old yeller dog before they would ever vote for a Republican. When the Democratic Party stopped being the big tent party was when flipping congress became the fad.

"Nice" that you left out the Nixon Southern Strategy.
A lot of those old "conservative yeller dog" Democrats of the South became today's Southern Republicans who are now the insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol.

Whether conservative Democrats or conservative Republicans - conservatism is the common thread to racism and bigotry throughout the history of the United States.

Most southern democrats remained loyal to the democratic party, at least in state and local elections. Take Georgia, we stayed under democratic control, governor and state legislature from the civil war until 2002 when we elected our first Republican governor and state legislature in our entire history. While the south as going republican after 1980, many states retained their Democratic governors and state legislatures along with senators and congressmen. It wasn’t until 1994 when the south finally had more Republican congressmen than Democratic. For the longest time Gingrich was the only Republican congressman in the state of Georgia and both our senators were democrats That is until 2002 when R Chambliss defeated D Cleland and in 2004 when R Isakson defeated D Zell Miller. .

No, the old guard remained loyal to the Democratic Party. Very few switched. The Switching they did was at the presidential level which they and the south tended to vote as America as a whole voted in 1980,all but 7 states went to Reagan 1984, all but one went to Reagan 1988 all but 11 went to Bush and even in 1992 the south was split between Republican and democratic candidates, Clinton carrying Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. Clinton carried Tennessee, Kentucky Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Florida in 1996. Since 2000 the south has become fairly solid Republican in presidential elections.

It was the young that grew up Republican, not the old guard.

#VoteBlueNoMatterWho

Exactly Rick, the Republicans have the same motto except theirs is “Vote Red no matter who.” As a swing voter it seems to me hard core partisans don’t care about the quality of the candidates or whether they’d be good at what ever elected office they are running for. They care only about the letter behind the name.

While both parties have basically expunged their moderates leaving only hard-core partisans as can be seen in the rise in independents from 30% in 2006 up to 42% today. Those of each party willing to cross over and vote for the other party’s candidate has shrunk into the single digits. As an example, 27% of Democrats voted for Reagan in 1980, 11% of Republicans voted for Carter, 26% of Democrats voted for Reagan in 1984. 17% of Democrats voted for Bush in 1988, In 1992 16% of Republicans voted for Clinton and 21% voted for Perot while 9% of Democrats voted for Bush with 17% voting for Perot. With both major parties shrinking, becoming more highly partisans come 2008 we’re down to single digits of a major party voting for the candidate of the other party. 9% of each major party voted for the candidate of the other party in 2008, two years after independents begin their rise to becoming the largest group in the electorate overtaking either major party’s base. 2012 it was down to 7% of democrats voting for Romney and 6% of republicans voting for Obama. 2016 7% of each party voted for the other party’s nominee and finally in 2020, we’re down to 6% of republicans voting for Biden vs. 5% of Democrats voting for Trump

Both major parties have become much more ideological and partisan which has led to today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. This began much earlier during Reagan when both major parties expunged their unwanted conservative and liberal wings. Followed by both major parties getting rid of their moderates beginning in the 2000’s. I think this expunging has pretty much been completed. Now independents are the sole decider of elections, not neither major party’s base.

Any ideas why Republicans are recalibrating their position on abortion? Us Ranters have been told that abortion is a non-issue this mid-term.

You've been told that abortion isn't going to change the loss of the House.

That Remains true.

Republicans running on the supposed "bad economy" are somewhat stymied by the fact that everyone has a job and plenty of money.

The biggest problem is that they are emptying the shelves faster than they can be refilled. Which causes prices to go up. Supply and demand as defined in every textbook.

Abortion, on the other hand, is a hot-button item and some Democrat somewhere just defeated his opponent in a bellwether race which bodes well for other Democrats elsewhere.

Republicans are now addressing the issue so they are better prepared to defend against it next time.

Pretty simple strategy.

We'd have to ask Pero, but I think about 4% of independent voters feel very strongly about abortion. That's a huge number. Seriously, seriously huge.

What spells success in today's political world is the ability to get independent voters off their couches to participate in the election rather than sitting home and watching the results on their phones.

Don't ever stop being hopeful, Rick. Some unforeseen event or series of events may occur before November to sway the election our way (plenty already have, including abortion).

I stand before you, not as an opponent, but as the cold hard truth. Political reality. The very best you can hope for is a loss of 15 seats. And that will be a historic victory.

**edit** I swear to god I typed those same words months ago and nothing has really changed.