Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Au contraire. NY17 special election last week showed that wasn't true. AZ Senate candidate Blake Masters scrubbed from his campaign website his stance on abortions. The article linked above is showing the Republicans are changing their views on abortion.

Why are Republicans running from abolition if it's not a factor in the mid-terms?

I think I just explained that pretty clearly, Dems caught 'em off guard, now they need to adjust.
You never played sports did you?

I think our stance all along has been that financial security trumps abortion security and the abortion factor was already baked into the equation...

Everybody needs food and housing, but not many need abortions. That's the gist of it.

This election is not "about" abortion. But it's something that Dems can rub the Reep's noses in and win a few elections here and there. That's what political footballs are for and why they never get codified because that kicks them out of play.

States with draconian abortion laws will all soon be facing multiple lawsuits where harm is apparent. These will be climbing the judicial ladder to the Supreme Court in due time and we'll see a certain amount of this nonsense dealt with.

I was never convinced that Abortion would be something that would cause the Dems to win. Then the Republicans went a bit crazy over Abortion and now I am not so sure. When one considers Abortion, as well as the extremes the Republicans are embracing, I suspect that if the Dems actually fight they can win. The Dems, in the past, hasn't done a real good job at going after the Republicans. Hopefully, this time around, given the amount of ammunition the Republicans have offered that the Dems will actually make a real run at them.

I know, its not likely, but if somebody actually drags Trump into court before November I can only wonder .............

Greger, 5% of independents now state abortion is their most important issue. That’s up from 4% a month ago. 21% of independents list inflation/prices as their most important issue along with 12% who say jobs and the economy is their most important issue. I’d think those two should be united into one, but apparently the pollsters don’t think so. Question 72.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lin7y95jz5/econTabReport.pdf

Although I think abortion was baked in, I do think that issue has motivated democrats to get out and vote in higher numbers than usual. The Democrats have evened up the enthusiasm gap. Question 64 as 39% of Democrats now say they’re more enthusiastic vs. 40% for the Republicans.

I think keeping Trump front and center on TV with all his baggage is a greater help to the Democrats than abortion. Independents don’t like Trump much and have been very hesitant to vote for his chosen candidates or in general, a party’s candidates led by Trump. When Trump wasn’t making headlines, being on camera all the time, the GOP looked likely to retake both the house and senate. Today, just the house. I’d give odds at 80% that the Democrats keep control of the senate and the same 80% that the Democrats lose control of the house. My 18-20 seat house loss still goes. Mainly because so many house democrats retired or decide to run for high office leaving 31 open seats. Open seats are much easier to switch or flip than beating an incumbent.

JGW, the democrats have narrowed independents who state they plan on voting for republican congressional candidates down to 42-39 from a month ago when the Republicans had a 10 point lead over Democratic congressional candidates. I don’t think its abortion that has caused the shrinkage, although it has played a role. It’s more likely it is having Trump on TV, all the news about Trump that is the major reason. Independents don’t like Trump, only 33% of independents view Trump favorably vs. 57% unfavorably.

While most independents think abortion should be legal, it more of a, "I'd rather abortion be legal but it's not important enough to change who I had planned on voting for." In other words, abortion is way down on the list of issues that independents use to decide who they'll vote for.

the special election in New York showed an extra high democratic turnout vs. a more normal turnout among Republicans. I;m not sure what to read into that. Maybe a wake up call for the Republicans who many of have taken the midterms for granted. We'll see.

That Republican Fascism of taking a woman's right away to control her own body is causing decent folks to vote against Republicans. Just a thought.

Abortion isn’t about to replace inflation, rising prices as the most important issue in deciding who one votes for or the Trump effect on independents. Most independents don’t give an owl’s hoot about abortion unless that affects them personally. It’s their wallets and purses that are feeling mighty thin that is the important issue. On this front the Democrats have gotten good news with falling gas prices, but not in rising food and housing prices. Also, Trump which is disliked by most independents continues to be hot news, not abortion. Throw in the fact Trump got nominated a few very poor-quality candidates along with being out of the mainstream candidates, extreme comes to mind for the senate, this will enable in my opinion for the Democrats retaining control in the senate. But not the house.

If you were following the Generic congressional ballot, all this news on Trump over the last month, not abortion allowed the democrats to shrink a 2.5-point GOP lead to actually taking the lead of 0.2 points for 3 days in August, 16, 17, 18 August. But have since fallen behind by 0.8 points as of this AM.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

One other thing, as of this AM you have 91% of Republicans stating they’ll vote for their candidates, only 3% for the Democratic candidates. It’s almost identical among Democrats with 91% stating they’ll vote Democratic, 2% Republicans. The rest undecided, not sure. The historical average is 94% of those who identify themselves with either major party. I’m sure once the undecided’s decide, 94% of each party’s loyalist will vote for their party’s candidates.

It's independents that are flocking to candidates like Fetterman in PA, Barnes in OH, Kelly in AZ, Warnock in GA etc. Not either party’s base vote. In each case Trump chose and the Republicans went along with him to nominate very poor general election candidates.

Democratic baby-killing socialists are taking away the right of LIFE for unborn babies and causing decent Americans to vote Republican...

Pretty good opinion piece on Huffpost:

Why GOP Anger Over Student Loan Forgiveness

It's all about winning and losing, folks. As I've said before it all starts with a competitive sports fixation. Eric Cartman loving the taste of his rival's tears.

Is that a bad thing?