Greger, 5% of independents now state abortion is their most important issue. That’s up from 4% a month ago. 21% of independents list inflation/prices as their most important issue along with 12% who say jobs and the economy is their most important issue. I’d think those two should be united into one, but apparently the pollsters don’t think so. Question 72.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lin7y95jz5/econTabReport.pdf

Although I think abortion was baked in, I do think that issue has motivated democrats to get out and vote in higher numbers than usual. The Democrats have evened up the enthusiasm gap. Question 64 as 39% of Democrats now say they’re more enthusiastic vs. 40% for the Republicans.

I think keeping Trump front and center on TV with all his baggage is a greater help to the Democrats than abortion. Independents don’t like Trump much and have been very hesitant to vote for his chosen candidates or in general, a party’s candidates led by Trump. When Trump wasn’t making headlines, being on camera all the time, the GOP looked likely to retake both the house and senate. Today, just the house. I’d give odds at 80% that the Democrats keep control of the senate and the same 80% that the Democrats lose control of the house. My 18-20 seat house loss still goes. Mainly because so many house democrats retired or decide to run for high office leaving 31 open seats. Open seats are much easier to switch or flip than beating an incumbent.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.