LOL, don’t you ever get tired talking about abortion. I get tired of hearing about it. As to why the GOP is changing their messaging on abortion is simple. They can’t bring themselves to blame Trump and all the very poor-quality candidates Trump has produced. The Republicans can’t admit, won’t admit that Trump is causing them to lose independent voter support.

You had the leaked draft on the 8 the June. Then the SCOTUS overturning Roe on the 24th of June. Look at RCP’s generic congressional ballot for a month after the overturning. The Republicans had a 2.6-point lead on 25 June the day after the overturning. All polls prior to that date are irrelevant if you think abortion is the cause. On 25 July the GOP still had that same 2.6-point lead in the generic congressional poll.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

You would think if abortion is such a hot issue or isn’t baked in, there would have been movement away from the Republicans when new polling data became available a week after the overturning, certainly two weeks after, for sure 3 weeks after or a month after the overturning. But nary any movement except for the normal ups and downs. For a month after the SCOTUS overturned ROE, it’s like no one cared except those who are planning on voting democratic. Cold hard numbers show that.

Since the 26th of July, Trump has been the hot topic, all over the news, abortion has taken a back seat to Trump. As I stated, independents don’t like him much. Most independents don’t care about abortion, democrats do. 2 weeks after the overturning the percentage of democrats who state abortion is their issue deciding their vote rose from 9% up to 16% and has since dropped back to 9%. Independents started off at 4%, abortion has risen one point, up to 5% today. The percentage of independents who had an unfavorable view of Trump was at 51% on 25 June and again another 51% on 25 July but has risen to 57% today. Those are cold hard numbers.

The percentage of independents who stated they’d vote Republican in the generic congressional ballot on 25 June was 44-34 and on 25 July 45-35 over the Democratic congressional candidates. No change in the month following the overturning of Roe. But today, independents now state they’ll vote Republican 42-39. The abortion issue remained constant from 24 June through today, but the dislike of Trump who’s been on the news all the time has risen from 51% to 57%.

No, the GOP will never admit Trump is their problem. They’ll blame it on abortion or something else. Trump is the GOP’s god king, so it can’t be Trump that is causing the Democratic surge. It must be something else. It’s simple if one follows the numbers and leaves their heart out of it or leaves pre-conceived ideas out of the equation. It’s Trump, at least when it comes to independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.