Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

It's kinda weird.

¯\_( : /)_/¯

Contrary to what many believe, Republicans are changing their messaging on abortion.

If abortions' is not such a voter issue, why not stick to the Republican platform of no exceptions ever as many had on their websites, but have now changed.

LOL, don’t you ever get tired talking about abortion. I get tired of hearing about it. As to why the GOP is changing their messaging on abortion is simple. They can’t bring themselves to blame Trump and all the very poor-quality candidates Trump has produced. The Republicans can’t admit, won’t admit that Trump is causing them to lose independent voter support.

You had the leaked draft on the 8 the June. Then the SCOTUS overturning Roe on the 24th of June. Look at RCP’s generic congressional ballot for a month after the overturning. The Republicans had a 2.6-point lead on 25 June the day after the overturning. All polls prior to that date are irrelevant if you think abortion is the cause. On 25 July the GOP still had that same 2.6-point lead in the generic congressional poll.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

You would think if abortion is such a hot issue or isn’t baked in, there would have been movement away from the Republicans when new polling data became available a week after the overturning, certainly two weeks after, for sure 3 weeks after or a month after the overturning. But nary any movement except for the normal ups and downs. For a month after the SCOTUS overturned ROE, it’s like no one cared except those who are planning on voting democratic. Cold hard numbers show that.

Since the 26th of July, Trump has been the hot topic, all over the news, abortion has taken a back seat to Trump. As I stated, independents don’t like him much. Most independents don’t care about abortion, democrats do. 2 weeks after the overturning the percentage of democrats who state abortion is their issue deciding their vote rose from 9% up to 16% and has since dropped back to 9%. Independents started off at 4%, abortion has risen one point, up to 5% today. The percentage of independents who had an unfavorable view of Trump was at 51% on 25 June and again another 51% on 25 July but has risen to 57% today. Those are cold hard numbers.

The percentage of independents who stated they’d vote Republican in the generic congressional ballot on 25 June was 44-34 and on 25 July 45-35 over the Democratic congressional candidates. No change in the month following the overturning of Roe. But today, independents now state they’ll vote Republican 42-39. The abortion issue remained constant from 24 June through today, but the dislike of Trump who’s been on the news all the time has risen from 51% to 57%.

No, the GOP will never admit Trump is their problem. They’ll blame it on abortion or something else. Trump is the GOP’s god king, so it can’t be Trump that is causing the Democratic surge. It must be something else. It’s simple if one follows the numbers and leaves their heart out of it or leaves pre-conceived ideas out of the equation. It’s Trump, at least when it comes to independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated.

Apparently, Republican-controlled legislatures telling women what they can and can't do with their bodies doesn't bother you. Noted.

I’m one of those millions who think abortion should be legal, that the woman should decide. But abortion doesn’t make my list of issues that decides my vote. I think you’ll find this true for most swing voters. The price of bread and milk, hot dogs and hamburger, affects us much more than abortion. Everyone, rich, poor, male, female has to buy and pay for food.

If I think a candidate will do an excellent job at whatever office that candidate is running for, that candidate will get my vote. Whether than candidate is pro-choice or pro-life doesn’t enter into it. I go with the candidate I deem best suited for the job. Not the second or lower quality candidate who may get the job only because of that candidates position on abortion. Perhaps the difference is you’re a hardcore partisan, I’m not.

You can go right on thinking abortion will elect a ton of Democrats, but I prefer to go by the numbers. If abortion was going to be the deciding factor, I’m sure you would have seen changes in the generic congressional ballot between 25 June when Roe was overturned and 25 July which showed no change. That fact should tell you something. Not all people think alike. Everyone has different priorities and different reasons for voting the way they do.

Fact is government has a long history of telling women what they can and can’t do with their bodies. I do believe what a woman does with her body is up to her, be that having an abortion or being a prostitute. It’s her body and as far as I’m concerned, her choice.

Indeed, the midterms will be a vote for democracy or Rightwing rights-taking fascism.

If there is a vote at all sort of implies that democracy has already won.

And again I ask...if the midterms turn out as predicted will it be a victory for fascism or democracy?

Or do you consider that a complete impossibility?

I have a friend who said that it would have preferred if the gov just got rid of the interest and applied all paid interest onto the debt. I remember when Obama did this one and was not exactly happy with it then and the interest thing was just offensive.

I had a heart specialist who saved up 100,000.00 to pay on her debt, It only covered her interest. Her husband is a canadian and when he finished his schooling he worked for the Canadian government for something like 5 years (not sure) but it paid off his entire debt. They both moved to Canada - screw the 'loan'.

I think that its really about the extreme stuff the Republicans are doing, especially in the Red states. Its just plain offensive. As I watch them try and blow past most of it, if they are running, its becoming clear that their extremes are beginning to offend a lot of people and they know it. Some of the stuff they are doing just makes no sense and a lot of it seems to be coming from religious extremists.

I think the terms are "White Christians" and "Christian nationalists". I think the first might be racist the the second are saving the united states. Praise the Lord?

Welp, another special election, another Dem flip…this time in Alaska. Sarah Palin can see failure from her front porch.