Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

In Alaska, no less! And Palin is certainly a MAGA favorite. But she just lost the special election for Alaska's partial term House seat to a Democrat. I suspect things are NOT going to go well for Republicans in November. I think voter registration is 140,000 Republicans to 77,000 Democrats, 23,000 other parties.

So SOMETHING sure happened.

Ranked choice voting had a lot to do with it. Palin always reminded me of a dizzy blond without the blond hair or Lucile Ball of I love Lucy without the red hair. What happened, 2 Republicans 1 Democrat, Begich the other Republican finished third with a majority of his voters making D Peltola their 2nd choice over Palin or instead of Palin. Palin and Begich went negative in their personal attacks leaving Peltola alone. What all that negativity caused Begich voters to list Peltola as their 2nd choice over Palin. One of these because of what you wish for or how you campaign,

Round 1
Begich, Nick 53,756 28.52%
Palin, Sarah 58,945 31.28%
Peltola, Mary S. 75,761 40.20%

Round 2

Palin, Sarah 85,987 48.53%
Peltola, Mary S. 91,206 51.47%

I’ve never cared for ranked choice voting.

Right? A Demi might get elected.

Ranked choice or not, the Democrat still won both rounds! That never could have happened unless a lot of Republicans voted for the Democrat, or maybe Republicans stayed home en masse, and Democrats plus the other party registrants went and voted almost all for the Democrat. That would have taken like 91% turnout for the Democrats and other party voters who all voted for the Democrat, and only 61% turnout for the Republicans who voted for Sarah.

Given the voter Party affiliation in Alaska, that was a rout.

The bottom line is, who's nailin' Palin is not going to Congress. Thank the Goddesses! I'm sure Todd and his new gal were eating ice cream in bed, when that news came on and they both had a good laugh. In fact, Todd's family held a fundraiser for the R-guy who campaigned against Sarah.

When a candidate resorts to negative personal attacks with nothing else, that candidate ought to lose which is what happened. In my mind both Begich and Palin should have lost since they went so negative which is exactly what happened which makes me one satisfied happy camper. Party means little to nothing to me.

Your seeing a slow transfer of anti-Trump or anti-mega Republicans now voting or moving toward the Democratic Party nationwide. Recently you had 6 high profile Pennsylvania state republicans endorse Shapiro and Fetterman although it goes against every grain in their body to do so.

Without Trump and his MAGA Republicans, the GOP would have rolled the democrats this year in the midterms. Trump is being very successful in getting Democrats reelected, he deserves a million thankyou notes from every democrat.

I wouldn’t give that assclown Trump the time a day. Maybe a good punch in the nose to bloody his face - but that’s it.

Cook Political on Thursday shifted its forecasts for five competitive House races in favor of Democrats.

Also...

Nancy is feeling good about keeping the House.

Really, I just left Cook which had the 1 Sep update. I only count lean and tossups, unless a party has a race in the other party’s likely column. On 25 Aug Cook had 47 Democrats, 16 Republicans in those categories. On 1 Sep he has 46 Democrats, 16 Republicans. By adding together 6 other sites and then averaging I come up with my competitive, switchable, at risk seats. Which currently stands at 43 Democrats vs. 16 Republicans.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

More important is Cook has 4 currently held democratic seats in the likely Republican column and 6 currently held democratic seats in the lean Republican column. Cook has 3 currently held Republican seats in the lean democratic column and none in the likely Democratic column.

Cook also lists 162 safe democratic seats vs. 188 safe Republican seats with each party having 26 seats in the tossup column. I disagree with the safe seats, I list 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. The difference is supposed is I count likely seats as safe seats since they’re not competitive yet. Although Cook lists them as likely as they stand a chance of becoming competitive. I don’t.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings

Cook really hasn’t any major changes in the house races since July.