Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Rick, did you look below that bar. The portion that list the districts via likely, lean and tossup? Even going by your bar or should I say, Cook’s.

You have 162 solid Democratic, 188 solid Republican
Add the likely 13 more bringing the Democrats to 175 and the likely GOP of 14 bring them to 202
Then the leans,15 for the democrats, up theirs to 190, then add 11 to the Republicans, lean you’re at 213 GOP

Cook has 32 pure tossups which consist of 24 currently held Democratic seats vs. 8 currently held Republican seats. If these two parties win all their solid, likely and lean seats, the Republicans need just 5 of the 32 pure tossup seats to regain control while the democrats need to win 27.

Simple math. Myself, I like taking not only Cook, but 6 other sites like Sabato, Inside Edition, 538, Fox, split ticket, Election Daily, add up all the different columns, categories and then divide and average them all out. I don’t rely on just one forecaster or prognosticator.

Sarah Palin's loss to a Democrat in Alaska's special election was encouraging!

That only lasts until November but I expect the same results then. A native American! Good job Alaska!

I dunno much about Alaska or why the f*ck anybody lives there but seeing Palin humiliated sort of tugs at my heartstrings and gives me a warm fuzzy feeling.

Rick, just keep in mind all of this is dynamic, changes occur. The numbers are also as of today, if the election were held today, this is the likely outcome. Some changes occur fast in a short time; others take a very long time. Back in June it looked like it would be the Republicans gaining a seat or two in the senate. Today the odd is the Democrats will be the gaining party, of 1-2 seats, most likely 2.

In the house, the gain of 18-20 seats by the Republicans going district by district has been steady since redistricting was completed. This doesn’t mean there won’t be changes or they may occur fairly rapidly or perhaps no change at all.

Governors have always looked like a 3-4 seat pickup for the Democrats since January. No change there. The key is where, which states when it comes to governorships and the senate. Remember in the senate it’s the Republicans who are defending 21 seats to the Democrats 14. The same for governors, 28 governors are Republican, 22 Democrat. The house is different, the Democrats are defending more seats, 222-213.

Pero, I'd seriously like to whittle your 18-20 seats down to 15 or less.

If abortion is pulling some voters off the couch I'm certainly not going to fight it. And neither should Democratic candidates.

Rub their noses in it. Rub their noses in Trump's BS too!

Republicans are divided on both issues. Democratic strategists seem to be hitting on all cylinders.

It's almost like the clouds are parting and giving us a glimpse of the sun...

Rick has every right as a partisan Democrat to hope that the Blue Team scores a grand slam on November 8th. That good will triumph over evil, that the moral turpitude of the Republican party will be revealed and that Americans can march into a Brave New World....

Until DeSantis wins in 2024 and it all turns into another Trail Of Tears...

Like Trump with brass knuckles instead of tiny baby fists.

But that's the next "most important election of our lives" It's gonna be interesting if he wins in 24 and not in a good way.

I always use or usually use the caveat, “If the election were held today or by today’s numbers.” I have today’s numbers, but not the numbers for November since I’m not a fortune teller or a seer and my last name isn’t Nostradamus

The trend has been slowly shifting since July toward the democrats. One of the problems is the Democrats have 31 house incumbents retiring or running for higher office. Which simply means those seats are open, no incumbent. Open seats are always easier to switch, flip. 3 of the 4 currently held democratic seats in the likely Republican column are open seats. 3 of the 5 currently held democratic seats in the lean Republican column are also open seats, no incumbent. 7 of the 24 pure tossup seats are also open in the Democratic tossup column. Retirements and house incumbent democrats deciding to run for higher office has left the Democrats much more vulnerable than normal.

If you go back to 2018, 20 of the 44 house seats the Democrats flipped were open seats where the Democrats didn’t have to face an incumbent. All this factors into the equations. The GOP gained 13 house seats in 2020, 8 of them open seats.

If I made a guess for November, 15 sounds about right with the trend in the democrats favor. Independents today are stating they’ll vote Republican 42-39, down from 45-35 on the 1st of August. But where, in what district are those independent voters located in? If they’re in safe Democratic or safe Republicans districts, they make no difference. Only in swing or at risk district could they become a deciding factor. It makes no difference if the Democrats wins his district 60-40 or 65-35 or even 70-30 with the addition of those independents who switch their planned voted. It also makes no difference if the Republican wins its district 65-35 or 55-45. The big question is where are the votes changing? Apparently if the competitive, at risk districts remain basically the same, those switching to the Democrats aren’t living in those competitive districts. That’s another thing to take into consideration.

End of book for now.

Certainly, he does. I would expect nothing less. But hardcore partisans make very poor political strategist or forecasters, prognosticators or even political realist. Rick in the end may be right, but not today. We have 68 days to go before the election, quite a lot can happen between now and then. Trump can continue to shoot the Republican Party and its candidates in the foot, making them limp into the general election. A very good possibility.

Then again something could happen to energize the GOP to where once again they might regain both chambers. I doubt it, but possible. If I were a democratic political realist, I’d be very happy with gaining 3-4 governors, 2-3 in the senate giving the Democrats more control while losing the house by a few seats. That would be in my opinion an outstanding victory for the Democrats.

My Braves struggled to a 52-53 record at the end of July before they caught fire and went on to win the World series last year. Who would have thought that possible at the end of July. No one. The realist in me told me the Braves were going nowhere, but hope springs eternal. With 88 wins, my braves had the worst record of any playoff team. Yet they won it all. Are the democrats last years Atlanta Braves only in the political arena instead of the baseball field? Possible, but the odds are stacked against them, but then again, so too were the odds on my braves last year. The odds are against my braves again this year, maybe we’ll both be happy once all is said and done. I doubt it, but there’s always hope.

....and then in a few weeks, whittle it down to 7 or less.

....and then in a few weeks after that, whittle it down to 3 or less.

....and then a few weeks after THAT, whittle down to 0

The difference here is as a swing voter, a non-partisan, my goal, number one priority is to get my forecasts right regardless of who wins and losses. Winners and losers are irrelevant to me as long as my forecast is correct. Most partisans are very poor forecasters or prognosticators as their side will always win 100% of the time. Why not, they own the horses in this race, candidates in the election. As owners, their stakes are high, as a casual observer, fan, handicapper if you will, my stake in this race, game, election is close to nil. I own nothing, have no horse in this race. Just getting the forecast right is what is important to me.

Regardless, I’m left wondering if Trump hasn’t become the most important issue, factor in this election overtaking inflation, the economy, rising prices. A couple of months ago, I would have said this was impossible. But what has happened over the last month or two, the trend going the democrats way, it’s very possible.

Correcting the record regarding inflation. Inflation actually began under Trump. See details here.

The GOP Platform:



Decent Americans won't be voting for the GOP Platform these midterms.