I always use or usually use the caveat, “If the election were held today or by today’s numbers.” I have today’s numbers, but not the numbers for November since I’m not a fortune teller or a seer and my last name isn’t Nostradamus

The trend has been slowly shifting since July toward the democrats. One of the problems is the Democrats have 31 house incumbents retiring or running for higher office. Which simply means those seats are open, no incumbent. Open seats are always easier to switch, flip. 3 of the 4 currently held democratic seats in the likely Republican column are open seats. 3 of the 5 currently held democratic seats in the lean Republican column are also open seats, no incumbent. 7 of the 24 pure tossup seats are also open in the Democratic tossup column. Retirements and house incumbent democrats deciding to run for higher office has left the Democrats much more vulnerable than normal.

If you go back to 2018, 20 of the 44 house seats the Democrats flipped were open seats where the Democrats didn’t have to face an incumbent. All this factors into the equations. The GOP gained 13 house seats in 2020, 8 of them open seats.

If I made a guess for November, 15 sounds about right with the trend in the democrats favor. Independents today are stating they’ll vote Republican 42-39, down from 45-35 on the 1st of August. But where, in what district are those independent voters located in? If they’re in safe Democratic or safe Republicans districts, they make no difference. Only in swing or at risk district could they become a deciding factor. It makes no difference if the Democrats wins his district 60-40 or 65-35 or even 70-30 with the addition of those independents who switch their planned voted. It also makes no difference if the Republican wins its district 65-35 or 55-45. The big question is where are the votes changing? Apparently if the competitive, at risk districts remain basically the same, those switching to the Democrats aren’t living in those competitive districts. That’s another thing to take into consideration.

End of book for now.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.