Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

When it comes to elections, it's who gets the blame for inflation that counts. Very few of the electorate are financial gurus or pay attention to when it started. When inflation goes away, Biden will get the credit for it whether or not he had anything to do with it.

The economy is like the weather, it does what it wants to do. No president nor government controls it. If they did, we’d have all ups, all good times, no bad times and no downs. The person in charge always gets the blame or the credit, that comes with the job. The good news for the Democrats is gas prices are falling although food and housing continues to rise. Along with Trump helping the Democrats this election cycle, the falling gas prices is a benefit the Democrats.

If Trump had faded away after the November 2020 election like all other past presidents have, a red wave election would have been a certainty. I think Trump wishes he had, but his ego wouldn’t let him. He’s one egotistical SOB. So too do some Republicans who can see the damage Trump has done to the GOP. You guys sure you don’t want to keep Trump around with all the help he’s given the democrats this for this year’s election for 2024 election cycle? If I were a democratic election strategist, I sure would.

Of course it did. Trump did everything in his power to overheat the economy and guarantee future failure in favor of short-term gains. American voters recognized his poor management skills and poor judgment and soundly defeated him when his term was up.

That doesn't make the Biden administration blameless for anything and this administration will be judged on its own merits, not the demerits of the former administration.

100% agree.

It's interesting times we live in with respect to history. I wonder what generations from now will think of this period in American history. I hope that the recent special elections are indicative of current American voters seeing through the smoke, lies, and mirrors of those wanting to take America into the directions of strongmen directors and fascism, or continue on its path of democracy which began 246 years ago.

I’ve said many times that the 2020 election was a personality election especially where independents were concerned. Obnoxious, rude, uncouth vs. the only adult in the room. It was all about getting rid of Trump for most independents, not issues. 2022 midterms from what I’m seeing is becoming more and more about Trump than issues like abortion, inflation, etc. At least over the last month. The last two election that were basically about Trump, 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential, the Democrats won. I didn’t watch Biden’s speech against MAGA Republicans, my Braves were on, priorities. But it seems to me that the Democrats including Biden are forgetting issues in favor of campaigning against Trump. That just might work. Abortion can fire up some Democrats to get out and vote but does little for independents. Now independents dislike Trump, having or making this midterm election all about Trump and Trumpers, now that can attract the independent voter much more than the issue of abortion.5 times as many independents say inflation, rising prices over abortion is their top issue in deciding who to vote for this midterm. But make Trump the issue, their dislike of him may override inflation, rising prices as to who they decide to vote for. That seems to be the case over the last month. It certainly is an interesting strategy. But hey, it worked in 2018 and in 2020, why not try it again in 2022. Time will tell.

5% of independent voters rank abortion as a top concern. That's 5% of independent voters who are more likely to get off the couch and vote for Democrats.

Independent voters are trending away from Reeps lately. and I'm going to assume that Trumpism, in general, has been rejected by independents, not just Trump himself.

The economy has improved(by some metrics) and Biden's numbers are rising.

I expect a few weird-ass surprises in every election.

15 seats seems doable. 16 more likely. A gain of 3 in the senate is doable too. 2 is most likely.

Rick Scott pissed away all the Senate re-election funds, so Reeps are running at a deficit there.

High cotton.

I wondered about that senate reelection funds. How much of that money went to Trump and his lawyers? This was the first thing I thought of when I learned of the GOP pulling funds out of PA, AZ, OH. Maybe another state or two. We know the RNC has been paying Trump’s legal bills. Money that could have been used by the GOP for the 2022 midterm campaign. I have nothing to go on with this, just a feeling.

Over the last month I’ve seen the democrats narrow the Republican advantage among independents from 10 point to 3 points in the generic congressional ballot. But I haven’t seen any changes going district by district. District by district has been static while the generic congressional ballot has been moving. Remember the generic is nationwide, a total of all the congressional vote. I think perhaps this movement in the generic by independents is independents lean democratic which abortion means more to them than pure, true independents with no leans or independents that lean republican. It also where this movement is taking place. In the northeast or west coast, it probably isn’t going to make any difference as a huge majority of those districts are safe Democratic anyway. It’s the swing, competitive, at risk districts that so far aren’t showing any change. Safe seats also have remained the same while the generic is moving toward the Democrats. Give it time, perhaps district by district hasn’t caught up yet with the generic. So much depends on how the districts were drawn and where the districts are. Time will tell.

Here you go Greger

List of Democratic house tossup districts
District Representative PVI
AK-00 Mary Peltola R+8
CA-13 Open D+4
IL-17 Open D+2
IN-01 Frank J. Mrvan D+3
KS-03 Sharice Davids R+1
ME-02 Jared Golden R+6
MI-07 Elissa Slotkin R+2
MI-08 Dan Kildee R+1
MN-02 Angie Craig D+1
NH-01 Chris Pappas EVEN
NH-02 Annie Kuster D+2
NV-01 Dina Titus D+3
NV-03 Susie Lee D+1
NV-04 Steven Horsford D+3
NY-19 Open EVEN
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur R+3
OH-13 Open R+1
OR-05 Open D+2
PA-08 Matt Cartwright R+4
PA-17 Open EVEN
RI-02 Open D+4
TX-28 Henry Cuellar D+3
VA-02 Elaine Luria R+2
WA-08 Kim Schrier D+1

List of Republican tossup districts.
CA-22 David Valadao D+5
CA-27 Mike Garcia D+4
CO-08 New Seat EVEN
NC-13 Open R+2
NE-02 Don Bacon EVEN
NM-02 Yvette Herrell D+1
NY-22 Open D+1
OH-01 Steve Chabot D+2

I’m not going to list the lean by districts, but in districts that lean democratic you have 12 currently held by Democrats and 3 held by Republicans. In districts that lean republican you have 6 currently held democratic seats and 5 currently held republican seats. In seats that look like they are definitely going to change, switch or flip to the other party, there are 4 currently held democratic seats going Republican with no Republican seats definitly going Democratic.

Not one, but two early elections swung Democrat. Both were bellwether races pointing to the overall mood of the nation.

In the various district by district matchups, some can be determined by a relative handful of votes. Ron DeSantis won his seat by 32,000 votes....not exactly a mandate to rewrite the American Constitution...so a ragtag band of lesbian abortionists and their girlfriends could flip a handful of random house seats...ya never know...! If we knew who the winners and losers were gonna be we wouldn't have to vote!

Local politics has a lot of sway with House seats too. Your local Representative is your direct link to DC. He shows up to chamber breakfasts, and county fairs, and is well known to many of his constituents. Local stars rise and local stars set. Things we know nothing about may affect any of those races.

Just like the poll numbers can change, so too the mood of the nation.

I'm just sayin' if the stars all align and if nuthin' don't happen...best they could hope for is 15 seats so I'm gonna hedge and say 16 for now.

I don't really see any way it could improve beyond that.

The only way I can see at this point in time the Democrats keeping control of the house is if Trump announces his run for the presidency prior to the midterm. That would benefit the Democrats from an independent voter’s point of view. But even with that, I doubt it would be enough to retain the house in Democratic hands. The numbers just aren’t with the Dems in the house, not like they are in the senate and governors. Also remember the Democrats are at a disadvantage of having about twice as many retirements and house dems running for higher office than the GOP.

An interesting article on Alaska

https://www.nationalreview.com/news...int-fingers-after-special-election-loss/

There were approximately 10,000 voters who didn’t make a second choice. Interesting in that in round 1 112,701 voted Republican, but only 85, 987 did so in round 2. Which simply means that many Begich voters just didn’t want Palin neither. Alaska’s two Republicans senators called and congratulated Peltola on her win. It seems neither of them wanted Palin either.

Round 1
Begich, Nick 53,756 28.52%
Palin, Sarah 58,945 31.28%
Peltola, Mary S. 75,761 40.20%

Round 2

Palin, Sarah 85,987 48.53%
Peltola, Mary S. 91,206 51.47%

Didn't he just announce his intention to run at the Pennsylvania rally where he promised pardons and apologies for the J6 rioters and accused John Fetterman of using hard drugs?

Donald Trump intends to run for the presidency. He is dead set on revenge against all Americans who have wronged him regardless of party affiliation. He is dead set on proving he is not a loser. And he is dead set on being president for the rest of his life.

Democrats can take that to the bank.

I didn't think he'd run, and he may not. But he plans to unless something stops him and he announced those plans in Pennsylvania.