5% of independent voters rank abortion as a top concern. That's 5% of independent voters who are more likely to get off the couch and vote for Democrats.

Independent voters are trending away from Reeps lately. and I'm going to assume that Trumpism, in general, has been rejected by independents, not just Trump himself.

The economy has improved(by some metrics) and Biden's numbers are rising.

I expect a few weird-ass surprises in every election.

15 seats seems doable. 16 more likely. A gain of 3 in the senate is doable too. 2 is most likely.

Rick Scott pissed away all the Senate re-election funds, so Reeps are running at a deficit there.

High cotton.

Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...