Not one, but two early elections swung Democrat. Both were bellwether races pointing to the overall mood of the nation.

In the various district by district matchups, some can be determined by a relative handful of votes. Ron DeSantis won his seat by 32,000 votes....not exactly a mandate to rewrite the American Constitution...so a ragtag band of lesbian abortionists and their girlfriends could flip a handful of random house seats...ya never know...! If we knew who the winners and losers were gonna be we wouldn't have to vote!

Local politics has a lot of sway with House seats too. Your local Representative is your direct link to DC. He shows up to chamber breakfasts, and county fairs, and is well known to many of his constituents. Local stars rise and local stars set. Things we know nothing about may affect any of those races.

Just like the poll numbers can change, so too the mood of the nation.

I'm just sayin' if the stars all align and if nuthin' don't happen...best they could hope for is 15 seats so I'm gonna hedge and say 16 for now.

I don't really see any way it could improve beyond that.

Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...