Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

That's a pretty good idea. But remember that in 2020 they rejected Trump and handed a loss to the House while Trump personally gave them the two Georgia Senate seats.

You can expect a few upsets on both sides in November, possibly canceling each other out.

Pero's projection for the House is the one we want to beat. I'm hopeful that Dems will perform slightly better than today's polls indicate. There are 435 elections so there's plenty of wiggle room in the closer races.

A 15 seat loss in the House, and a pickup of 2 Senate seats is my projection.

Exactly Rick, the anti-vote can be huge. I call them anti-voters as they vote against a candidate, but not for any candidate. They don’t care who the candidate’s name is or what party of the person they’re voting for, anyone would do, Atilla the Hun or Genghis Khan would do as long as it wasn’t the candidate they’re voting against.

Biden won the anti-vote in 2020 68-30 over Trump. The anti-voter made up 24% of those who voted. Trump actually won those who voted for a candidate, not against 53-46 over Biden. 2016 was the same, the anti-vote carried Trump over Clinton with Clinton winning those who were voting for a candidate because they wanted that candidate to win. The anti-voter just votes for a candidate to lose, who wins is irrelevant to them.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

What we’re seeing today in the ranks of independent voters with Trump front and centered is they have been reminded why they disliked him so. That disliked has moved some away from voting for a Trump led party and its candidates to switch to voting democratic. It’s not that they like the Democrats and want the Democrats to win, they don’t. Those independents who are switching just want the Trump led Republicans to lose more than the Democrat. They’re anti-Trump, not necessarily anti-Republican Party as shown in the 2020 election where 7 million of these anti-Trump voters voted for Biden, but then voted Republican down ballot enabling the Republicans to gain 13 house seats, a governorship and 2 state legislatures.

Post Labor Day weekend update on the House.

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 59 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 43 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Safe seats as of 6 Sep, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 15-17 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 228-207 to 230-205.

The reason for the project Republican net gain drop from 18-20 down to 15-17 is 3 Democratic tossup seats moved into the lean Democrat column. Although these 3 seats are still considered competitive, switchable and at risk of flipping to the GOP. It means the democrats have a slight advantage in these 3 seats/districts whereas prior they didn’t.

Hey! Rich Strike won the 2022 Kentucky Derby, entering the race at odds of 80–1.

I'm in Port Angeles...........

The polls are catching up to me... but I'm not revising any lower for a while.

I've got family in Seattle...

That they are Greger. What we’re seeing is a movement of independents in some tossup districts changing from Republican to Democrat. We still must remember that the GOP has a big safe seat/district advantage of 198-178 over the Democrats. Also, the Democrats have 24 seats in the tossup column vs. just 8 for the Republicans. Which if split down the middle would translate into 16 seats each which would be a gain of 8 for the GOP. But the Democrats also have 4 currently held seats that looks close to certain to switch to Republican which would put the GOP gain at 12. Looking at the leans, 6 currently democratic held seats lean Republican, 3 currently republican held seats lean Democratic, now we’re at a net gain of 15 for the Republicans. There’s 2 currently held Democratic seats that have been going between tossup and lean Republican over the last couple of months. Hence, my 15-17 Republican net gain.

Keep in mind, I can cover about everything possible except voter turnout. There’re numbers available for almost everything, except voter turnout which might turn the above upside down. There’s no doubt the raid on Mar-a-Lago has been huge for the Democrats. Since the raid the Democrats who were trailing in the generic congressional ballot by 2.5 points now have a 0.2-point lead. Plus, the shift in independent voters from 45-35 Republican to 42-39 Republican. Will this trend continue, time will tell?

What I’m looking for before I give the Democrats a chance at retaining the House is a change in safe seats. The Democrats need to add some seats to their 178 while the GOP needs to drop some of their safe seats from 198. A 20 safe seat advantage is huge.

I've had 15 seats in the "best you can hope for" column for a while and it might be the best you can reasonably hope for in this election.

Unless charges are filed between now and November we've run out of Trump bombshells.
Republicans are aware of their problems and are doing everything they can to staunch the bleeding. Like backtracking on abortion and keeping Trump's name out of their mouths.

They planned to run on the economy but prices are coming down and so is Trump's house of cards.

They've essentially got nothing but "Let's Go, Brandon!"

I like going into a race like this! If the House must be on the sacrificial block I want to lose it by as few seats as possible.

Seven would be a nice number. Or eleven...it's kind of a crapshoot anyway.

Welp, Li’l Marco has doubled down on no abortion ever for any reason and has said Trump’s taking of classified docs is a “storage issue.” Now comes information that among the docs Trump was in possession of are nuke docs for a foreign country.

I’m putting li’l Marco in the toast category.