That they are Greger. What we’re seeing is a movement of independents in some tossup districts changing from Republican to Democrat. We still must remember that the GOP has a big safe seat/district advantage of 198-178 over the Democrats. Also, the Democrats have 24 seats in the tossup column vs. just 8 for the Republicans. Which if split down the middle would translate into 16 seats each which would be a gain of 8 for the GOP. But the Democrats also have 4 currently held seats that looks close to certain to switch to Republican which would put the GOP gain at 12. Looking at the leans, 6 currently democratic held seats lean Republican, 3 currently republican held seats lean Democratic, now we’re at a net gain of 15 for the Republicans. There’s 2 currently held Democratic seats that have been going between tossup and lean Republican over the last couple of months. Hence, my 15-17 Republican net gain.

Keep in mind, I can cover about everything possible except voter turnout. There’re numbers available for almost everything, except voter turnout which might turn the above upside down. There’s no doubt the raid on Mar-a-Lago has been huge for the Democrats. Since the raid the Democrats who were trailing in the generic congressional ballot by 2.5 points now have a 0.2-point lead. Plus, the shift in independent voters from 45-35 Republican to 42-39 Republican. Will this trend continue, time will tell?

What I’m looking for before I give the Democrats a chance at retaining the House is a change in safe seats. The Democrats need to add some seats to their 178 while the GOP needs to drop some of their safe seats from 198. A 20 safe seat advantage is huge.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.