Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

…and I am going to add Ron Johnson {R-WI) to the toast column too.

Falling gas prices has helped the democrats as has Trump and all his shenanigans. This last month of all the attention on Trump and not on inflation has been a god sent for the democrats. But food prices, shelter, other items continue to rise and according to Gallup, more folks are feeling the hardships of inflation.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/400565...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I think if the Republicans can turn this election away from Trump and back on inflation, they may be able to reverse the trend now in the Democrats favor. I’m sure PA senate will go to D Fetterman. WI may also go to D Barnes, so even getting the attention off Trump, back on inflation won’t stop the democrats from retaining control of the senate or gaining at least 3 governorships. The House is trickier, way too many races are in the question mark area. With 43 currently held Democratic seats vs. only 16 Republican held seats in the at risk, switchable column, there’s no doubt the Democrats are in trouble. That they’ll lose control of the house. To have a chance of retaining control of the house, I’d say the democrats must bring down their 43 at risk seat to at least 30 while the GOP rise to at least to 20. After all, the democrats are defending more seats. Time will tell. But today, the trend is going the democrat’s way, mainly because of Donald Trump.

Unfortunately for them, Trump is his own worst enemy. If his rally in PA is any indication he'll be making headlines right up to election day.

We appear to be witnessing a bit of a lull in the economic collapse, artificial indicators like gasoline prices tend to mask real and bigger issues.

So we're waiting for the next big event or headline to twist the narrative away from its current trajectory...

Rubio taking a hard line on abortion might not play as well as he imagines. So I'm gonna up Deming's chances by a tick or two. Doesn't matter much because the Senate is safe in any case.

I also noticed Demings closing the gap on Rubio. I’ve added Florida to my list. Here is the list as of today. Yes, Trump continues to do all he can do to ensure the democrats retain control of the senate. He's also beginning to effect a few house races. Doug has it right when he said, "Midterms: A battle for control by both parties. Some Republicans fear the election in November will be another referendum on Donald Trump. He lost the last one." This is what this midterm is turning into.

Senate and House update 7 Sep 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – GA D Warnock down from +3 to +2, NH D Hassan up from +5 to +6, Florida added

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +2 Democratic hold R 50, D 50
Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +4 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – D Barnes +1 Democratic gain R 48 D 52

The Democrats gain 2 seats, giving them a 52-48 advantage. Harris can now take some days off.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 59 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 43 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 15-17 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 228-207 to 230-205.

Good work Pero ^^^

Now this is interesting, and I totally agree with the article.

Why Things May Really Be Different for This Midterm Election

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-things-may-really-different-114935003.html

From the article:

“A choice, not a referendum

If there’s a saying that captures why midterms go so poorly for the president’s party, it’s the idea that “midterms are a referendum, not a choice.” If it’s a referendum, the Democrats are in trouble. After all, President Joe Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s.

But this year, there’s a pretty good reason to think this won’t just be a referendum: Donald Trump.”



In other words, the focus of the voters are turning away from Biden and the Democratic controlled congress to focus on Donald Trump. Instead of a referendum on Biden and company, this midterm is becoming a referendum on Donald Trump. Which is a good thing for the Democrats especially when it comes to the independent vote which makes up 41% of the electorate. Independents don’t like Trump much nor his endorsed or chosen candidates.

I’d add one more thing, the Republicans have been too busy fighting the 2020 election than paying much attention to this one, the 2022 midterms. The Democrats have been paying attention to 2022, with better candidates and a political strategy that is now placing Trump front and centered. It’s working.

Now the GOP Senate wants a national abortion ban.

Good! These idiots can keep shooting themselves in the foot.

GOP’s Graham to Again Propose National Abortion Restrictions

South Carolina senator to introduce legislation Tuesday
Graham’s action raises profile of abortion rights as issue

There's a paywall, but the headlines says "restrictions" rather than your inflammatory and intentional misquote.

Most Americans favor some restrictions on abortion. This puts the conversation on the table for codifying abortion rights.

If you were actually interested in rights and not political talking points you'd see this as a terrific place to begin bi-partisan talks on abortion rights.

It wasn't purposeful. How can you know what someone is thinking or know someone's intentions?

¯\_( : /)_/¯

There is no discussion of what people can do with their own body. It's nobody's business. Nosy people need to butt-out and mind their own business.