Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

I think polls are very useful if one averages them out and then takes into consideration the margin of error. There are some polls I put a lot of stock in and others I don’t. The generic congressional poll is one I don’t. It a nationwide poll which gives us the nationwide numbers. That one doesn’t go district by district, just amasses what the total vote projection will be nationally. There can be quite a lot of differences between the total congressional vote vs. districts won and lost.

There are 435 elections for the House, not one big election as the Generic congressional ballot shows. It’s like the presidential, we have 50 different elections, not one mass election which the popular vote totals show. In the presidential, you need to go state by state, not any nationwide total of the vote. Same with the House of Representatives, take it district by district, not as one election, but as 435 different elections. Also, as far as the nationwide vote totals go for the House, one needs to remember there are 36 districts that have only one name on the ballot, no opposition. All votes will go to the candidate in these uncontested elections which skews the total congressional vote total.

Wanna bet that they won't be voting Republican?

I have no problem with CBS’s projection, but that is but one of many. It isn’t that far off from 14-16 Republican seat gain I have as of today. There’s one site that provides several projections, 270 to win. The difference between them, CBS and 270 to win is 270 to win includes tossup districts where CBS don’t.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election-predictions/

Consensus Republicans 219, Democrats 210, tossups 10
Crystal Ball Republicans 215, Democrats 195, tossups 25
Cook Political Report Republicans 212, Democrats 192, tossups 31
Inside editions, Republicans 211, Democrats, 206, tossups 18
538 Republicans 219, Democrats 208, tossups 8
Fox News, Republicans 216, Democrats 189, tossups 30
Split ticket, Republicans 217, Democrats 200, tossups 18
Elections Daily, republicans 217, Democrats 194 tossup 24
Politico, Republicans 211, Democrats 195, tossups 29

These are some of the sites where I get my information, then average everything out. Sometimes averaging works, sometimes it doesn’t. Usually I come within a handful of districts. But I don’t use just one site.
I do it differently than these prognosticators. I count lean and tossup seats as being competitive along with being at risk, switchable. Leans seats are still within the margin of error although one party or candidate has an advantage. I also like to let folks know who holds, which party holds these competitive, at risk of switching seats. The folks above average out to 24 tossup seats. Those tossup seats don’t include the lean seats which are also competitive and at risk. The average projection for those 9 sites is Republican 215, Democrat 196, tossups 24. Of those 24 tossups, 16 are currently held by Democrats, 8 currently held by Republicans. Using the average of 215 being projected, the Republicans would need but to win 3 of the 24 tossup seats to gain the majority while the Democrats would have to win 22 of 24.

If those 24 tossup seats were to split down the middle, 12 each, the GOP would have 227-208. Which basically matches CBS’s total of 223-212.

Another thing Rick, on 16 Sep the Democrats had a 45.0-43.7 lead in the generic congressional ballot. Today, the Democrats lead has shrunk to 0.3 points, 45.3-45.0.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

A shift in momentum? Too early to tell. The Republicans had a 2.5-3.0 lead until the beginning of August, then the Democrats took the lead, up to 1,3 points middle of September. But since then the GOP has narrowed that lead. Maybe rising prices, inflation is returning to the fore instead of Trump. We’ll see.

And this right here, Rick, is what I gave as my most optimistic number.

10 seats.

I don't think it will happen but it's within the realm of the possible.

Dems maintaining control is what's not gonna happen. But the closer the better.

Want to know something comical? In the Georgia senate race D Warnock has come out that the Atlanta Braves should change their name, R Walker says no. This is now the talk of the town so to speak. Changing the name of the Atlanta Braves Baseball team has overtaken the issues of abortion, inflation, rising prices, etc. At least for the time being.

I’ll keep an eye on this race as Warnock has a slim 0.3-point lead according to RCP averages. Well within the margin of error which simply means Warnock may be ahead as much as 3.3 points or trailing as much as 2.7 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html

Could the Georgia Senate race be determined on the issue of changing the name of the Atlanta Braves? Very possible. Most Georgians and in particularly, Atlanta Braves baseball fans don’t want the name changed. I’m sure this name changing issue won’t affect who Republicans and Democrats will vote for. Independents are another matter, they’re finicky and it doesn’t take much to change who’ll they vote for. Today independents say they’ll vote for Warnock by a 48-44 margin. This name changing issue which has moved to the top of the issues list here in Georgia, could change that.

Will the hot political issue of changing the Atlanta Braves name become the issue that decides the Georgia Senate Race? Time will tell. I do think it could sway some independents away from Warnock if their Braves fans.

THAT was a really asinine thing for Raphael Warnock to do.

I think so too. Warnock brought it up speaking at a rally of Korean seniors northeast of Atlanta. There was no rhyme or reason to bring up the changing of the name of the Atlanta Braves. Asinine may be too soft of a word. Most Asians are firmly behind Warnock. I doubt changing the name of the Braves even crossed those Korean Seniors mind. I also doubt there were many baseball fans among them although I could be wrong about that. Many Koreans are avid baseball fans. We’ll see, as I said I’m keeping an eye on this.

Maybe this was a trial balloon to see how it would play. It’s the hurricane that is getting most of the play today on the news.