Capitol Hill Blue Forums Misc. Topics Member Submitted Links predictit on current elections

I did this before but its be several months so I thought I would again. Just about every one of 'markets' has well over 2000 'trades' up to over 1 million trades. They continue to think that the Dems are going to lose the house but win the senate. Oh, there has been a law suit to stop this publication. Thought that was interesting as well.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections

Google "law suit against predictit" to see ....

They don't have to be f*cken Dick Tracy to figure that one out. It's more a matter of by how many seats than the way control is going to go. That's pretty much a given. You look at those odds...exactly what we've been saying here for better than a year. Or almost a year, or something like that...it hasn't really wavered much except in favor of Democrats.

In my estimation the best Dems can hope for is a 15-seat loss in the House and a three-seat gain in the Senate. (more likely 2) But my thinking is that Democratic odds are going to continue to go up unless there is some sort of October surprise that plays in the Reeps' favor.

I'm not going to try to ferret out what predictit says on the numbers of seats, but that's what I say...15 and 3 (more likely 2).

I'm hoping they do even better. A Trump indictment might be the October surprise we get.

That might stir up a little bluewater storm surge...but without some sort of unusual circumstances, it'll be 15 and 3.

Pero?

Yeah, Greger. That’s what it looks like today. My numbers are 15-17 Republican Party gain in the house, although that could shrink a bit. We’ve seen the 18-20 figure for most of the year until August when it shrunk down to the current 15-17. Chances are it will shrink a bit more if the current trend remains in place through November. But with the GOP needing 5 seats to regain control, I don’t see, at least as of today how the Republican can fail to gain that many. I put the senate as a 1-2 seat gain for the democrats and I add 3-4 governorships. 3 seat gain in the senate is very possible, PA, WI, NC are the three. GA and NV are possible GOP gains, although both GA and NV are leaning Democratic today.

I arrive at my 15-17 Republican gain looking at PVI of each district the at-risk seats are in, I come up with the Republicans gaining 21 of the 43 Democratic at-risk seats, but the Democrats gain 5 of the Republican’s 16 at risk seats. For the Democrats to retain control of the house, their number of at-risk seats must drop in my opinion to at least 30. What hurts the democrats is retirements and those Democrats leaving the house to seek higher office. Leaving 31 seats open, no incumbent. Open seats are much easier to flip than beating an incumbent. In open seats 31 democratic, 16 republican.

Michael Moore's been right before and he just predicted a landslide in both chambers, a Democratic landslide.

**Sigh**

That's not what happened in Alaska. And it's not going to happen again in November.

It was a split ticket that gave Dems the win.

I'd love it if he were right, but I'm not an optimist nor a pessimist, I'm a realist...

A loss of 15 seats is the best Dems can hope for realistically. When we first started talking about midterms I think the numbers were at 10-12 seats. Pero's numbers rose to 18-20 at the peak of gas prices, I never bought into that...I peaked at 17.

A loss of 10 seats would be my most optimistic prediction but would be subject to so many caveats that I just can't go there. Anything less than that is pretty much off the charts of probability.

I'm not saying it can't happen, just that it probably won't.

A loss of 5 seats would be the most interesting...or four perhaps...to leave the gavel in the current hands because Meadows doesn't deserve it.

It's the difference between what I'd like to see and what's probably going to happen...

New voter sign-ups are young women by 2:1.

Here’s my latest update using today’s numbers. That’s the key, using today’s numbers. Based on today’s numbers the below is likely to happen.

Senate and House update 25 Sep 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – AZ Kelly down from +5 to +4, GA D Warnock down from +2 to +1, FL R Rubio from +4 to +5, OH R Vance from +2 to +3, PA D Fetterman from +4 to +6, WI R Johnson from -1 to +1

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +1 Democratic hold R 50, D 50
Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +5 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +3 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +6 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +1 Republican hold. R 49 D 51

The Democrats gain 1 seat, giving them a 51-49 advantage.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 59 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 43 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 14-16 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 227-208 to 229-206.

And so here we are at 15 seats.

And here we're liable to stay for the next 47 days.

Unless something really big happens.

That’s nice Rick, but what issue is causing women to register? If it is abortion, are they pro-choice which you assume and rank abortion as their deciding issue or are they pro-life or have another issue much more important that women think it’s necessary to register?
Women on the top deciding issue, the economy, jobs, inflation prices 30%, Healthcare 12%, Abortion 11%, Climate change 10%, all other issues are in single digits. Men the economy, jobs, inflation, prices 34%, Climate change 12%, all other issues are in the single digits. Whites, the economy, jobs, inflation, prices 32%, Climate change 10%, all other issues in single digits. Blacks 25% the economy, jobs, inflation, prices, healthcare 15%, civil rights 14%, all other issues in single digits. Hispanic the economy, job, inflation, prices 32%, climate change 13%, all other issues in single digits.

Planned Generic congressional vote. Female, 49-36 Democratic, male 46-41 Republican, white 48-40 Republican, black 70-14 Democratic Hispanic 48-25 Democratic

It’s still early, the above is very dynamic and will change week to week as do my election forecasts.