WE NEED YOUR HELP!
Please donate to keep ReaderRant online to serve political discussion and its members. (Blue Ridge Photography pays the bills for RR).
I wonder how much election infrastructure damage/issues will prevent voters in the Port Charlotte metro area to not be able to vote. This is a heavily red area and Rubio and Demmings are extremely close in their race.
Keep in mind the MOE, margin of error on these polls are plus or minus 4.4 points. Which means Rubio could be ahead by as much as 7.2 points or behind by 1.6 points. But since all 4 polls listed has Rubio ahead, I think it’s a safe assumption to conclude Rubio is ahead. By how much? The 2.8 points looks about right to me.
Yes, the senate race is a very close. In Florida's governors race, DeSantis lead is outside the MOE, he looks like he is comfortably in the lead.
I would rate the governor’s race as likely Republican, DeSantis, the senate race as lean Republican, Rubio. I say two reasons for the difference. One is independents going for DeSantis by 3 points but going for Demmings by 1. Two is the senate races are more national in nature while usually the governor races are more local, base more on local issues than national. Liberal states like Massachusetts and Maryland have Republican governors along with Kansas having a Democratic governor. But neither Massachusetts nor Maryland would ever elect a Republicans as senator while Kansas won’t elect a Democrat as senator. Unless exceptional circumstance prevails.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
This hurricane might not be good for DeSantis. There were some legislatorial shenanigans in regards to property insurance which has forced many Florida home insurers into insolvency and forced them to pull out of Florida.
There may be thousands of homeowners who find themselves without insurance after the storm.
Very true. An unforeseen major event can turn the old apple cart upside down. The FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago was unforeseen event, at least by me. That led to Trump being a headline news star which completely switched the momentum of this year’s midterms away from the Republicans onto the Democrats. But it seems with Trump not the old headline news star for the last week or so, that momentum has slowed and possibly has reversed. Time will tell.
I always thought Rubio being fairly safe, but that’s not what the recent polls are showing. I hadn’t followed the governor races closely, just a glance now and then. I have read where Trump has told Republican donors not to donate anymore to DeSantis as he might challenge Trump for the 2024 presidential election. Another case of Trump being willing to throw another Republican under the bus for his own personal ends. He did that here in Georgia with the January 2021 senate runoffs.
Trump has made Kemp his enemy and seems to be helping Abrams, now Florida with DeSantis. Trump was the big reason the Republicans lost their two Georgia senate seats back in 2021. Trump choose the worst possible candidates for the general election in PA, OH, NC, AZ and perhaps a couple of more. A lot of his choices for governors played right into the Democrats hand. This guy is one huge asset for the Democrats. If I were a democrat, I’d want to keep this guy around forever and in front of the cameras as long as I could.
Last edited by perotista; 09/28/2211:43 PM.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Mail ballot delays possible in parts of Florida amid Hurricane Ian, election official says
Quote
"Attempts to reach elections officials in Lee and Charlotte County — where Ian roared ashore Wednesday — were unsuccessful," the newspaper reported. "Nearly 200,000 people voted by mail in those two counties during the most recent midterm election, in 2018."
There has been slight movement in the senate races toward the GOP. Wisconsin, Rep Johnson has retaken the lead over Dem Barnes. I’ve moved WI from a democratic gain to a Republican hold in my last house/senate forecast I posted here. Current numbers indicate a Democratic controlled senate 51-49 instead of 52-48. A net gain of 1 instead of 2 for the democrats.
Georgia remains in the lean Democratic column. Warnock with a slight 0.7-point lead. Basically, a tossup, but Warnock as the incumbent has the slight advantage. Democratic hold for the time being.
Laxalt in NV has taken the lead over Dem Cortez Masto. I’ve keep this state in the Democratic hold category. As I believe NV’s Hispanics will come back into the fold to support Cortez Masto. Hispanic’s in NV has been moving toward the Republicans. As is the case in the border states of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.
If NV flips, your back to a 50-50 senate. NV is one state I am keeping a very close eye on.
In NC, Rep Budd was floundering until a couple of weeks ago. He’s now ahead and gaining steam. Another GOP hold.
Rep Vance in OH is still having problems opening up a lead which all the pundits expect he will or should have already. But Dem Ryan is giving him all he wants. OH might be the shocker state this midterm in the senate races. OH was rated safe Republican until Trump endorsed Vance won the GOP primary there. Now OH is a lean Republican race.
Yes, over the last two weeks, the senate has swung slightly towards the Republicans. But not enough for the GOP to retake control Enough however to limit their loses from 2 down to 1 with perhaps another 50-50 tie. Depending on GA and NV.
Keep in mind with Biden at 42% overall job approval, the historical average is a lost of 6 senate seats for the party who president is hovering around 40% approval. Gaining a senate seat or two when a president is hovering around 40% approval is unheard of in this country’s long history of midterm elections or since presidential approval stats began with FDR by Gallup and Pew Research.
I’d place the odds of the Republicans taking control of the senate at 35% today. I’d say the worst the Democrats can do is another 50-50 tie, the best, 53-47 if the Democrats retain all their current seats and add WI, PA and NC. Today, however, a gain of one seat, PA with the remaining senate seats remaining with the party that currently holds them. Very close races in currently held Dem GA, NV, and GOP held OH, NC, WI which depending on voter turnout and how independents decide who they’ll vote for could go either way.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
House update 30 Sep 2022. Over the last week there’s been 5 tossup democratic held seats go over to the lean Democratic column. This change hasn’t changed the number of at risk, flappable seats for the Democrats, they still have 43 at risk seats, this number of at risk democratic held seats hasn’t changed since 1 Sep. The Republicans had one of their lean Republican seats go into the Republican tossup column bring their tossups to 9. But here again, that change didn’t affect their total of 16 at risk, switchable seats. What these changes have done is drop the projected Republican gain in the house from 14-16 down to 12-14. The movement of 5 democratic held seats out of the tossup column into the lean democratic column plus the addition of one Republican held seat from lean Republican to tossup caused the drop of 2 seats in the projected GOP gain.
However, the number of safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican hasn’t changed. Simply put, the Democrats still need to win 40 out of the 59 to retain control of the house. This number hasn’t changed either. But with the movement of seats from tossup to lean democratic along with the one seat moving from lean Republican to tossup. This has enhanced the Democrats chances of winning those 40 seats. The Republican need to win but 20 out of the 59 to regain control of the house. A week ago, I’d have given only a 15% chance of the Democrats retain control of the House. Today, I’d up that to 20% chance. But until the number of safe seats begin to climb past the Democrats 178 number they have now, I wouldn’t get too excited. This movement could be just the normal ups and downs as seats change columns. Time will tell
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
![[Linked Image from uploads.disquscdn.com]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac204aa9ba854cd08058499df406baa893421ceffe6918ae30b7b7f3b387174e.png)
After all, Trump won 2016 with that exact same percentage. 