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There has been slight movement in the senate races toward the GOP. Wisconsin, Rep Johnson has retaken the lead over Dem Barnes. I’ve moved WI from a democratic gain to a Republican hold in my last house/senate forecast I posted here. Current numbers indicate a Democratic controlled senate 51-49 instead of 52-48. A net gain of 1 instead of 2 for the democrats.
Georgia remains in the lean Democratic column. Warnock with a slight 0.7-point lead. Basically, a tossup, but Warnock as the incumbent has the slight advantage. Democratic hold for the time being.
Laxalt in NV has taken the lead over Dem Cortez Masto. I’ve keep this state in the Democratic hold category. As I believe NV’s Hispanics will come back into the fold to support Cortez Masto. Hispanic’s in NV has been moving toward the Republicans. As is the case in the border states of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.
If NV flips, your back to a 50-50 senate. NV is one state I am keeping a very close eye on.
In NC, Rep Budd was floundering until a couple of weeks ago. He’s now ahead and gaining steam. Another GOP hold.
Rep Vance in OH is still having problems opening up a lead which all the pundits expect he will or should have already. But Dem Ryan is giving him all he wants. OH might be the shocker state this midterm in the senate races. OH was rated safe Republican until Trump endorsed Vance won the GOP primary there. Now OH is a lean Republican race.
Yes, over the last two weeks, the senate has swung slightly towards the Republicans. But not enough for the GOP to retake control Enough however to limit their loses from 2 down to 1 with perhaps another 50-50 tie. Depending on GA and NV.
Keep in mind with Biden at 42% overall job approval, the historical average is a lost of 6 senate seats for the party who president is hovering around 40% approval. Gaining a senate seat or two when a president is hovering around 40% approval is unheard of in this country’s long history of midterm elections or since presidential approval stats began with FDR by Gallup and Pew Research.
I’d place the odds of the Republicans taking control of the senate at 35% today. I’d say the worst the Democrats can do is another 50-50 tie, the best, 53-47 if the Democrats retain all their current seats and add WI, PA and NC. Today, however, a gain of one seat, PA with the remaining senate seats remaining with the party that currently holds them. Very close races in currently held Dem GA, NV, and GOP held OH, NC, WI which depending on voter turnout and how independents decide who they’ll vote for could go either way.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
