House update 30 Sep 2022. Over the last week there’s been 5 tossup democratic held seats go over to the lean Democratic column. This change hasn’t changed the number of at risk, flappable seats for the Democrats, they still have 43 at risk seats, this number of at risk democratic held seats hasn’t changed since 1 Sep. The Republicans had one of their lean Republican seats go into the Republican tossup column bring their tossups to 9. But here again, that change didn’t affect their total of 16 at risk, switchable seats.
What these changes have done is drop the projected Republican gain in the house from 14-16 down to 12-14. The movement of 5 democratic held seats out of the tossup column into the lean democratic column plus the addition of one Republican held seat from lean Republican to tossup caused the drop of 2 seats in the projected GOP gain.

However, the number of safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican hasn’t changed. Simply put, the Democrats still need to win 40 out of the 59 to retain control of the house. This number hasn’t changed either. But with the movement of seats from tossup to lean democratic along with the one seat moving from lean Republican to tossup. This has enhanced the Democrats chances of winning those 40 seats. The Republican need to win but 20 out of the 59 to regain control of the house. A week ago, I’d have given only a 15% chance of the Democrats retain control of the House. Today, I’d up that to 20% chance. But until the number of safe seats begin to climb past the Democrats 178 number they have now, I wouldn’t get too excited. This movement could be just the normal ups and downs as seats change columns. Time will tell

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.