Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Republicans are so out of their minds these days that making Trump the SOH is not so far fetched as it seems. Trump would relish the attention, plus he'd be paid. Trump needs the money - he hasn't paid his lawyers - or haven't you heard?

Hunter Biden isn't even a government employee...and Ghouliani was in possession of the laptop...who knows what he loaded on it.

Oh snap! A tweet from Hershel Walker's son.

It's a double-whammy!

‘Pro-Life’ Herschel Walker Paid for Girlfriend’s Abortion


It's October...S-U-R-P-R-I-S-E!

Here’s what I do with events that may affect elections. I write down the date, check how the election or that race stands today, then check how the candidates stand in a week, then two weeks and a month after to see if the event had an affect or not. Today, this how Georgia’s senate race stands.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html

I’ve always had Warnock winning. I always expected Warnock to increase his lead as election day gets closer. Walker was probably the worst candidate the Republicans could have nominated to go against Warnock. But Trump endorsed and chosen, he won his primary over more qualified and much better candidates suited to win a general election. Walker is a very poor general election candidate. He won’t win. Look at the Georgia governor’s race to tell the difference between a good quality candidate which is also better suited for the general election when all folks vote, not just Republicans.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-7538.html

The big reason is Warnock and Kemp are doing good among independent voters. Walker and Abrams aren’t. There’ll be a lot of split ticket voting among independents. Another reason is senate races are more about national issues whereas governor races are about local issues. National issues do not have the same ring or importance in governor races since governor races are all about things going on within the state and state issues. Hence you can have Republicans winning the governorship of Massachusetts and Maryland and a Democrat winning the governorship of Kansas, while no Republican running in Massachusetts and Maryland and a democrat in Kansas has a chance of winning a senate seat or the presidential election.

Research by Mehmet Oz between 1980 and 2010 at Colombia University killed and inflicted significant suffering on over 329 dogs. This makes Mitt Romney’s revelation that he strapped his dog’s kennel to the roof of his car for a family vacation makes Romney look like a PETA activist writes Jezebel, an online magazine.

These experiments which Oz took full responsibility for, violated the Animal Welfare Act.

Today dogs, rabbits, and pigs, tomorrow forcing 12-year olds into pregnancies by their cousins - as long as they’re “more than first cousins” states Oz.

5 Oct 2022 - Changes in the house over the last week. The number of competitive, at risk, switchable seats for the Democrats fell to 42, their safe seats rose from 178 to 180. Republican at risk seats rose from 16 to 18 while their safe seats dropped from 197 down to 195.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 60 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 42 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Safe seats, 180 Democratic, 195 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 11-13 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 224-211 to 226-209.

This is the district by district figures. Not the national generic congressional ballot which I’ll address later as the national numbers are going the opposite direction. District by district the trend is democratic, nationally, the trend has shifted back toward the Republicans.

Here’s something that has always interested me. The want of a viable third party to challenge the democratic and republican parties. I’ve always been in the forefront of this, at times working hard to establish a viable third party. Failed though. Although the percentage of all Americans has dropped some from 2021, you still have only 40% of all Americans who think the two major parties do a good job of representing American People, 56% say they don’t, that we need a viable third party. This includes 75% of independents. Which is not surprising as independents or those who identify themselves as independents has risen from 30% of the electorate in 2006 up to 43% today as the major parties have shrunk. I’ve concluded a viable third party isn’t going to happen in our two-party system regardless of how fed up people become with our two major parties. They have a monopoly on our electoral system, and they’ll keep it regardless of how small they become as a percentage of all Americans in members or those who identify or affiliate with them. The bottom line is no matter how much the two major parties come to hate each other, even try to destroy each other, they do agree on one major thing, no viable third party will ever rise. Since Republicans and Democrats write our election laws, they write them as a mutual protection act. There are many other reasons, financial, media coverage, many more. But here if anyone is interested.

Public Interest in Having a Third Major Party Dips to 56%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/402515...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Some polls are showing Warnock +12

And some polls are outliers. Warnock is going to win. But it's not going to be by 12 points.

If I were going to take a guess about the final outcome I'd say maybe 2 percentage points tops. Might be tighter than that. Rs will vote for Rs no matter what...Independents will win the seat for Democrats.

Regarding viable third parties...we need two more. A progressive party for the lefties among us, and a conservative party for the extremists on that side,

Trouble is that most Americans are pretty moderate whether they lean liberal or conservative.

None want the higher taxes required for a leftist government and none want the heavy restrictions that come with a more authoritarian regime.

So even if we had two more viable parties, they wouldn't win many elections.

If we added a single "moderate" party it wouldn't get much interest because we've already got two moderate parties.