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Jeffrey, it wasn’t regular Republicans that gave the election in 2020 to Biden, it was independents. 94% of Republicans voted for Trump vs. 6% for Biden. Democrats were the same, 94-5 Biden over Trump. Independents who had voted for Trump in 2016 by a 46-42 margin with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates went heavily for Biden in 2020, 54-41 with 5% voting third party.
That’s a swing of 17 points, from a plus 4 to a minus 13 for Trump among independents. Plus, Biden winning the anti-voters. Those voters who only vote against a candidate, but not for any candidate. Any name on the ballot other then the candidate they’re voting against would do quite nicely. Trump won these anti-voters who only vote against a candidate 53-42 over Clinton in 2016. Biden won them 68-30 over Trump in 2020. Mind you this group of voters weren’t voting for Biden in 2020, just against Trump. Atilla the Hun would have worked just as well instead of Biden for this group. This group of voters made up 24% of all those who voted in 2020. Those who voted for a candidate because they wanted their candidate to win, not just against a candidate, Trump won those voting for voters 53-46. Just be thankful for the anti-voters. Independents and anti-voters gave Biden the presidency, not regular republican voters.
Today, 94% of Republicans say they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidates vs. 3% for Democratic congressional candidates. Among Democrats it’s 91-4 voting for Democratic congressional candidates over Republican congressional candidates.
My advice, if I were a Democratic political strategist, I’d ignore Republicans. You’re not going to get them to vote Democratic. I’d concentrate on winning independents, it’s independents who decide elections. It isn’t either major party’s base. Independents gave Biden the presidency, independents gave the democrat the house and senate in 2018, independents gave Trump the presidency in 2016, they gave the GOP the senate in 2014 and helped reelect Obama in 2012 and in 2010, by a huge 56-37 margin voting for Republican congressional candidates, independents gave the Republicans 63 house seat gain in 2010 and so on, on back.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
