Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

I didn’t know anything about Walkers past. But when Walker won the GOP primary over Charlie Black who would have been a good general election candidate, it was their choice of making a statement instead of winning in November. Of course, Georgia wasn’t the only state where the GOP went with making a statement instead of nominating a candidate with a good chance of winning the general election.

By the time this senate election is over, Walker may wish he never let Trump talk him into running. Walker just moved to Georgia in August I believe. Before that he lived in Texas. Walker is a very poor speaker, at times makes no sense besides all this stuff coming out about him. I think if the Republican Party wanted to win in November, they wouldn’t have gone with Walker, Oz or Masters. Kowtowing to Trump probably cost the Republicans all three of those senate races. I’m not going into the governor races, but there’s some there where making a statement overrode winning in November.

It boils down to what I’ve said many times, Trump is the biggest asset the Democrats having going for them this midterm.

When Republicans campaign for Democratic candidates it's no longer about "going Dem".
It's about avoiding the catastrophe of putting the Trump Party back in power again.
Never mind conservatives, most of the real ones either left the GOP already or were booted out via primary if they hold office. And by November 9th, there won't be a SINGLE traditional conservative Republican in Congress anymore.

It's just like Biden's election...Democrats OWE regular Republicans for the help they gave.
The midterms will likely be another possibly FINAL repudiation of Trumpism.

We hope. We can only hope.

I keep saying THIS mid-term will be unlike any other and I have faith that the majority of American people will do the decent right thing.

Jeffrey, it wasn’t regular Republicans that gave the election in 2020 to Biden, it was independents. 94% of Republicans voted for Trump vs. 6% for Biden. Democrats were the same, 94-5 Biden over Trump. Independents who had voted for Trump in 2016 by a 46-42 margin with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates went heavily for Biden in 2020, 54-41 with 5% voting third party.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

That’s a swing of 17 points, from a plus 4 to a minus 13 for Trump among independents. Plus, Biden winning the anti-voters. Those voters who only vote against a candidate, but not for any candidate. Any name on the ballot other then the candidate they’re voting against would do quite nicely. Trump won these anti-voters who only vote against a candidate 53-42 over Clinton in 2016. Biden won them 68-30 over Trump in 2020. Mind you this group of voters weren’t voting for Biden in 2020, just against Trump. Atilla the Hun would have worked just as well instead of Biden for this group. This group of voters made up 24% of all those who voted in 2020. Those who voted for a candidate because they wanted their candidate to win, not just against a candidate, Trump won those voting for voters 53-46. Just be thankful for the anti-voters. Independents and anti-voters gave Biden the presidency, not regular republican voters.

Today, 94% of Republicans say they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidates vs. 3% for Democratic congressional candidates. Among Democrats it’s 91-4 voting for Democratic congressional candidates over Republican congressional candidates.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/avydu33kqm/econTabReport.pdf

My advice, if I were a Democratic political strategist, I’d ignore Republicans. You’re not going to get them to vote Democratic. I’d concentrate on winning independents, it’s independents who decide elections. It isn’t either major party’s base. Independents gave Biden the presidency, independents gave the democrat the house and senate in 2018, independents gave Trump the presidency in 2016, they gave the GOP the senate in 2014 and helped reelect Obama in 2012 and in 2010, by a huge 56-37 margin voting for Republican congressional candidates, independents gave the Republicans 63 house seat gain in 2010 and so on, on back.

Both Nixon and Reagan were re-elected in spite of having historically high inflation.

The inflation rate in 1972 was 3.21%. Nixon won in a landslide more because of McGovern and his weird policies than what the inflation rate was. In 1980 when Reagan beat Carter the inflation rate was 7.59%, in 1984 Reagan had lowered it or it lowered itself depending on whether you want to place credit and blame on the president to 3.21%.

https://www.officialdata.org/1972-dollars-in-2015?amount=26900000#:~:text=The%20inflation%20rate%20in%201972,year%20between%202015%20and%202022.

The inflation rate was 1.23% when Biden took office, today it’s 9.3% and is the most important issue facing the voters as it was in 1980.

I think you may be missing the point a little bit.
Yes, you're right, ninety-four percent of Republicans IN 2020 voted for Trump, absolutely.
And that is BECAUSE in the last few years, the Republican Party has become The Trump Party.

Those independents you keep talking about? In the last few years there's been an exit in the GOP because the party booted lawmakers out and a fairly good number of former Republicans BECAME independents.
Those "former Republicans" ARE what USED to BE the regular conservative Republicans prior to the party becoming Trump's cult.

The Lincoln Project isn't a bunch of independents, anarchists and libertarians...they are former GOP LEADERS and the voters that helped put them in office. Steve Schmidt worked for Dubya and for Arnold Schwarzenegger.
John Weaver was a McCain guy. Rick Wilson worked for George H. W. Bush. Stuart Stevens worked for Mitt Romney.

The Getty Family, Christy Walton of Walmart Corp, are these people leftist commies?
No, they're FORMER Republicans.
And that's my point when I say that Biden owes a fair number of regular conservative Republicans for his win, in ADDITION TO his regular Democratic voters.
My point is, the Republican Party of today is so infected with cult behavior that ignores the future of the country that a tidal wave of voters, strategists and lawmakers EXITED today's GOP and they bumped membership IN the independent sector significantly.

But they are not "lifelong independents"...they became independents when their former party refused to recognize them anymore. It is the Republican Party that changed, not these people.

Party affiliation is dynamic and changes constantly. You can get a good hand on how much it can change and swing wildly here.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

If one takes a good look for the last 2 years, the GOP has been around 26-28% while the Democrats 27-29 on average with a bunch of ups and down past those numbers. The thing is both major parties are close to each other in party affiliation. It isn’t like it was in the past with the Democrats having a huge edge.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/

I wouldn't bet much on former Republicans voting for Democrats. Those folks above will not vote for Donald Trump again and will spend their money supporting GOP candidates more to their liking.

But like the covid deaths, I imagine those numbers will be insignificant in the greater scheme of things.

A lot of Republicans might abstain if Donald Trump made it onto the ballot. But most voters just go to the polls and vote a straight ticket for whichever party they identify with.

Whichever party their dad voted for...or against that party in many cases. Without having to think too hard about it.

I kind of get the feeling that Republicans aren't very fired up about this election. Primary voters and the Trumpy crowd might be fired up over perceived wrongs to them in the post-presidential persecution of their former golden boy.

But, having said that... the potential for an increased number of Republican-leaning couch sitters certainly exists. The less interested voters who might get off the couch if an issue or a candidate inspired them...or might just sit it out over the embarrassment caused by Trump and his cronies...

Elections are all about turnout. And turnout cannot be predicted.

Because you never know who's gonna get up and vote and who's gonna sit on the couch.

All the regulars will be there of course but it's the irregulars that win and lose elections. Everything is looking pretty rosy for the Dems outside of the inflation thing.

Not rosy enough to retain control of the House though.
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