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Could it be the results of this midterm election is directly tied to the price of a gallon of gas? I have said as much in earlier posts. The Republicans had a 2.6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot back in June with gas prices above 5 dollars. Then the price started to fall, and momentum shifted from Republican to the Democrats. In mid-September the price of a gallon of gas hit a low of 3.77 a gallon. The same time the Democrats had taken a 1.3 lead in the generic congressional ballot. Then the average price of a gallon of gas began to rise once more. It is now above 4 dollars at 4.03 a gallon. It also seems the momentum has shifted back to the republicans as they now have an 0.7-point lead in the generic congressional ballot.
Could it really be this simple? Or is it a coincidence? Republicans are going to vote for republicans, Democrats for Democrats, that’s a no brainier. It’s independents that decide these elections. They’re not political junkies and pay very little if any attention to politics until an election nears. Interesting to note that back in the June/July time frame independents were stating they’d vote Republican in the generic congressional ballot by a 45-35 margin. That narrowed in September to 42-39. Today independents are back up to a 43-35 margin for the Republicans.
Also, of interest in the senate, Fetterman’s lead in PA has shrunk from 9 points down to 4, while in NV, Laxalt has overtaken Cortez Masto. According to Nate Silver, 538, the odds or chances on the GOP gaining control of the senate has increased from 29% in September up to 35% today. Republicans taking control of the House has risen from 68% in September up t 71% today.
Is the price of a gallon of gas going to be the determining factor on how this year’s midterm elections turn out? An interesting correlation seems to have happened.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
