Originally Posted by perotista
Who cares, Walker isn’t going to win in Georgia. I’ve placed Georgia in my rear-view mirror. Unless something unforeseen happens between now and November, Warnock will keep his seat. He’ll probably win by 5 points or around there. I’m focused on PA and NV in the senate, some on NC.

36 house democrats are either retiring or running for higher office vs. 18 Republicans. Open seats are much easier to flip than beating an incumbent. Greger has this right.
FiveThirtyEight has the house spread at between 6 and 11, which I think is about right. There are definitely going to be surprises. The polls are not picking up a lot of activity, in my view. We're getting close to crunch time, and the question is really who shows up - committed activists, or died-in-the wool base voters. Early voting has started.

Originally Posted by perotista
Regardless of all the above, I still see the Republicans gain 11-13 house seats and control. While the senate stays at 50-50 or the Democrats gain a seat, PA for a 51-49 advantage if they don't lose NV. NV is interesting as Hispanics are voting more and more Republican. Which is a huge win for the Democrats as the historical average with a president whose approval is hovering around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governorships. The Democrats are posed to gain at 3 governorships. 3 weeks to go, things can and will change.
I think after the dust settles, it will be 50 Dem, 48 Rep, and 2 Independents in the Senate. I am hoping for a couple a startling upsets - Johnson in WI, and Rubio in Florida (one can dream). If McMullen could pull off Utah, I would be ecstatic!

On the House side I am much more pessimistic. I wish the video of Pelosi on January 6 got more circulation. She was nails.

A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich