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Who cares, Walker isn’t going to win in Georgia. I’ve placed Georgia in my rear-view mirror. Unless something unforeseen happens between now and November, Warnock will keep his seat. He’ll probably win by 5 points or around there. I’m focused on PA and NV in the senate, some on NC.
36 house democrats are either retiring or running for higher office vs. 18 Republicans. Open seats are much easier to flip than beating an incumbent. Greger has this right.
FiveThirtyEight has the house spread at between 6 and 11, which I think is about right. There are definitely going to be surprises. The polls are not picking up a lot of activity, in my view. We're getting close to crunch time, and the question is really who shows up - committed activists, or died-in-the wool base voters. Early voting has started.
Originally Posted by perotista
Regardless of all the above, I still see the Republicans gain 11-13 house seats and control. While the senate stays at 50-50 or the Democrats gain a seat, PA for a 51-49 advantage if they don't lose NV. NV is interesting as Hispanics are voting more and more Republican. Which is a huge win for the Democrats as the historical average with a president whose approval is hovering around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governorships. The Democrats are posed to gain at 3 governorships. 3 weeks to go, things can and will change.
I think after the dust settles, it will be 50 Dem, 48 Rep, and 2 Independents in the Senate. I am hoping for a couple a startling upsets - Johnson in WI, and Rubio in Florida (one can dream). If McMullen could pull off Utah, I would be ecstatic!
On the House side I am much more pessimistic. I wish the video of Pelosi on January 6 got more circulation. She was nails.
I too at the beginning of my forecasts thought the Democrats would gain PA, WI and perhaps NC. Today it looks like only PA, although WI could surprise. Keep an eye on IA. I also thought NV was safe for the Dem, but it isn’t today. 50-50 chance on it going Republican. But I still think incumbency will carry Cortez Masto to a win. NV brings up another subject, Hispanics. The Republicans are making good inroads with Hispanics in Texas, NM, Arizona and Nevada. But not in the rest of the country. Which explains why the AZ governors’ race is basically a tie.
The momentum has shifted back to the GOP. It was with GOP until the first week of August, then went to the Democrats, now has shifted back to the GOP. unlike in some past elections, the momentum either for or against either party hasn’t been huge. You can see this in the graph below.
Back in July, a gain of 18-20 seats for the GOP in the house looked likely, then the momentum swing in August which cut that probable gain down to 11-13 where I have it today. I do however expect the house gains to rise for the Republicans over the next 3 weeks because of the momentum swing. Maybe back to that 18-20, maybe not. The senate probably will remain 50-50 or 51-49 democratic depending on NV. There’s been changes in the governor’s races also, no longer a 3-4 Democratic pickup, perhaps closer to a draw or a gain of 1 or 2. Still, 3 weeks can be a lifetime when it comes to elections. A lot of changes can and at times do occur in the final 3 weeks.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
