Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

There’s also a dark horse coming up from behind that Pero has never mentioned - the NC Senate race.

I too at the beginning of my forecasts thought the Democrats would gain PA, WI and perhaps NC. Today it looks like only PA, although WI could surprise. Keep an eye on IA. I also thought NV was safe for the Dem, but it isn’t today. 50-50 chance on it going Republican. But I still think incumbency will carry Cortez Masto to a win. NV brings up another subject, Hispanics. The Republicans are making good inroads with Hispanics in Texas, NM, Arizona and Nevada. But not in the rest of the country. Which explains why the AZ governors’ race is basically a tie.

The momentum has shifted back to the GOP. It was with GOP until the first week of August, then went to the Democrats, now has shifted back to the GOP. unlike in some past elections, the momentum either for or against either party hasn’t been huge. You can see this in the graph below.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Back in July, a gain of 18-20 seats for the GOP in the house looked likely, then the momentum swing in August which cut that probable gain down to 11-13 where I have it today. I do however expect the house gains to rise for the Republicans over the next 3 weeks because of the momentum swing. Maybe back to that 18-20, maybe not. The senate probably will remain 50-50 or 51-49 democratic depending on NV. There’s been changes in the governor’s races also, no longer a 3-4 Democratic pickup, perhaps closer to a draw or a gain of 1 or 2. Still, 3 weeks can be a lifetime when it comes to elections. A lot of changes can and at times do occur in the final 3 weeks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...arolina_senate_budd_vs_beasley-7588.html

Which simply means NC leans Republican with Budd having around a 70% chance of winning considering NC history and voting habits among other things. NC has a PVI of R+3.

I can believe this.

The corporations have to make the money back they lost when Covid hit and they were forced to pay higher wages for trivial jobs, like working at Sheets or your local convivence store for $14.00/hr. Corporations had to have taken a hit during that time frame.

I don't understand why we are still having supply chain issues. I mean, unemployment is at the lowest point ever (maybe not ever, but for a long time), but we still have problems getting many items in stores.

I think the issue is not as much of a supply chain issue as it is a supply issue. Keep the supplies low and the prices stay high - basic law of demand/price.

What I'd like to see is corp executives take a hit. How many homes/yachts/islands do they need to own?

Perotista’s Senate and House forecast, updated 19 Oct 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – AZ D Kelly up from +4 to +5, GA D Warnock up from +1 to +3, NV R Laxalt from -1 to +1, NC R Budd up from +1 to +2, PA D Fetterman down from +6 to +4, WI R Johnson up from +1 to +2

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50
Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +5 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – R Laxalt +1 Republican gain R 51 - D 49
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 51 D 49
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50

The 50-50 tie remains with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and giving the Democrats control of the senate. Democrats pickup PA, Republicans gain NV.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 61 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 44 Democrats and 17 Republicans. Safe seats, 178 Democratic, 196 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 11-13 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 224-212 to 226-209.

If the Rs control the House and the Ds control the Senate, the only thing the Rs can do have have their asinine "investigations."

SEE: Benghazi
SEE: Durham

...and Nancy becomes the Ambassador to Italy.

If Rick, what you state becomes true, you bet the Republicans will launch a ton of investigations along with bringing any legislation to a screeching halt. But keeping the senate will let Biden’s nominees get confirmed. Then Biden, like Obama did for his last six years will govern via executive order. Which the SCOTUS will overturn a bunch like Obama had several ruled unconstitutional.

If the GOP retakes control of house, look for an investigation into Hunter Biden. Look for McCarthy to deny certain democrats any committee appointments, then look for impeachment of Biden. Republicans will be in the political payback mode. But you will have gridlock, stalemate, no legislation period. All setting the scene for 2024. How all that plays out, I don’t know. It depends on who each party nominates. Only 17% of independents want Biden to run again in 2024, 53% do not with the rest undecided. Question 61. 24% of independents want Trump to run again, 48% do not. Question 62.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/szo0yco18u/econTabReport.pdf

Like this year’s midterms, independents will be the deciding factor. Independents have shifted back to voting for Republican congressional candidates this year by a 43-35 margin. If you’re interested in how a Biden vs. Trump rematch would play out today, you have this.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Never underestimate the power of independents in deciding elections. Which both parties do all the time. According to Gallup, independents make up a bit more than 40% of the total electorate. But only around 25% of those who vote in any one election.

And this, Rick, is the magic that always happens whenever Republicans "seize" control...

They make utter fools of themselves. A Biden impeachment is coming up too. In which Republicans will make utter fools of themselves. And the senate will (predictably) fail to convict.

Further diminishing them in the eyes of all Americans, but most importantly future voters.

But they will also destroy the economy by trying to hold all legislation hostage to unrealistic cuts. They will use the debt ceiling as a cudgel, just like they did the last time they had power.