Originally Posted by Greger
For the better part of two years, I've been predicting that neither party would be happy with the midterm results. That hasn't changed a bit. I don't use the numbers or the heart.

But it turns out the numbers reflect the national mood about the same as I do. Pero and I have been in agreement from the start about who's going to win. and by how much. And why.

Once in a while, I get ahead of the polls, once in a while Pero spots a trend that I missed.

Maybe Rick is right and we've missed something big. Maybe Jeffery is right and it's the end of the fecking world as we know it.

Dems will lose the house by fifteen seats and retain the senate with the same tie they have now.

My heart really wanted a pickup in the senate but right now they'll be lucky to hang on to even that. That's what my head says.
Professional odds of each of the follow occurring.
Republicans win both the House and the senate - 40%
Republicans win the senate and the Democrats the house – less than 1%
Democrats win the senate, Republicans the House – 38%
Democrats win both the senate and the house - 21%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

These odds are dynamic and change constantly. It’s also interesting to note that that the chances of the Republicans winning the senate is up from 28% 2 weeks ago to 40% today. The chances of the Republicans winning the house has risen from 67% 2 weeks ago to 78% today. This shows the change in momentum. The GOP had the momentum until the fist week of August which switched to the Democrats which gave it up the momentum the last week of September back to the Republicans.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.