Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Professional odds of each of the follow occurring.
Republicans win both the House and the senate - 40%
Republicans win the senate and the Democrats the house – less than 1%
Democrats win the senate, Republicans the House – 38%
Democrats win both the senate and the house - 21%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

These odds are dynamic and change constantly. It’s also interesting to note that that the chances of the Republicans winning the senate is up from 28% 2 weeks ago to 40% today. The chances of the Republicans winning the house has risen from 67% 2 weeks ago to 78% today. This shows the change in momentum. The GOP had the momentum until the fist week of August which switched to the Democrats which gave it up the momentum the last week of September back to the Republicans.

Sure, the boat has rocked from side to side a bit, but its general heading has been the same.

When was the last time you predicted a win for Democrats in the House this midterm?

Because historic norms are what they are, I'd venture never. These races aren't that dynamic.

Once the parameters of this election were set, the outcome became fairly obvious.

The Senate could have gone either way this time...but it didn't. It just stubbornly remained out of the hands of either party and as such will be a win for the Dems.

With a weak performance in 2020, Dems barely clung to the House with a 5 seat majority.
If the economy had performed well they could have hung on. It didn't. They won't.

Just as we have both been predicting for months.

2020 was a very weird election, no historical standard to compare it to. It was a 100% pure anti-Trump election, no more, no less. 2020 had a ton of ticket splitters who voted against Trump, for Biden and then voted Republican down ballot. It came within a hair of Biden Trouncing Trump with the Republicans remaining in control of congress, both the house and the senate. If it weren’t for the 2 Georgia senate runoffs in Jan 2021, it would have been divided government. Republicans Perdue and Loffler won a plurality of the vote in Nov, but failed to reach the mandatory 50% plus one vote.

I think most folks didn’t know who they wanted in charge of congress in 2020, but they did know they wanted Trump gone. If it weren’t for the Democrats gaining 10 safe seats during redistricting, the gerrymandering wars, everyone and their brother, including Rick would realize the house is a goner. The senate has revolved around the same 5 or 6 states, AZ, GA, PA, NV, WI and at times NC. 35 senate races this year, only 6 competitive and only 2 that look like they may switch.

Wildcard, Alaska. With Alaska’s ranked voting, perhaps the Democrat could win there. I have looked at or followed Alaska. But with the special election for Alaska House seat being won by the democrat via ranked voting, anything is possible way up there.

And yet it turned out much as expected.

Only the poor showing by Dems in the House was weird...Kind of a hint that America isn't in love with Democrats either.

Trump not only failed to be re-elected, but he also delivered the Senate to the Dems...for an unearned trifecta!

We knew he wouldn't be re-elected but the Senate was a bonus. He's set to deliver it to Dems once again with his meddling in Georgia.

Could a better candidate have beaten Warnock? I don't know. Warnock seems like a real jewel, everything you could hope for in a Senator.

But the race is still tight, even with an idiot like Walker running against him...

It was confusion over the new rules that sent the Democrat to Washington. It won't happen again.

There’s hardly any love for the two major parties. All adults, the democratic party has a 17% very favorable, 23% somewhat favorable, total 40%. While 37% of all Americans view the Democrats very unfavorable, another 13% somewhat unfavorable, total 50%.

Republican Party, 14% very favorable, 27% somewhat favorable, total favorable 41%. 35% of all Americans view the Republican Party very unfavorably, another 14% somewhat unfavorably. Total unfavorable 49%.

Questions 67A and 67B.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/3vmufv6ya9/econTabReport.pdf

Looking at the very favorable, there isn’t much love out there for either major party, today or in 2020. More people vote against a party or candidates than vote for a party or their candidates. It’s comical that after an election, the winning party always says they have a mandate from the voters. That’s wrong, the winning party was just disliked a bit less than the losing party for that election.

More money has been spent for this 2022 midterm TV adverting, than in 2020 the presidential election cycle. In addition to what I stated above, also predict record turnout. Record turnouts favor the Dems.

High turnout always benefiting the Democrats is an old wife’s tale which I have proved here before. Here you go again. I limit this to just the midterms since that is what we have this year.

Midterm House elections. The average turnout for midterms is 40%
2018 50% high, Democrats gained 44 seats
2014 38% low, Republicans gained 8 seats
2010 42% high, Republicans gained 63 seats
2006 38% low, Democrats gained 33 seats
2002 40% average, Republicans gained 8 seats
1998 37% low, Democrats gained 3 seats
1994 42% high, Republicans gained 54 seats
1990 38% low, Democrats gained 7 seats
1986 38% low, democrats gained 5 seats
1982 43% high, democrats gained 27 seats
1978 39% low, Republicans gained 7 seats
1974 39% low, Democrats gained 39 seats
1970 48% high, Democrats gained 12 seats
1966 47% high, Republicans gained 47 seats
1962 46% high, republicans gained 4 seats

When the house changed hands, control 1994, 2010 and 2018, turnout was high. 2 for the Republicans, 1 for the Democrats. But in 2006 when the democrats took control of the house with a net gain of 33 seats, turnout was low. Finally, looked back at gains of one party or the other of 30 or more seats to compare that to voter turnout in the midterms.

2018 50% high, Democrats gained 44 seats
2010 42% high, Republicans gained 63 seats
2006 38% low, Democrats gained 33 seats
1994 42% high, Republicans gained 54 seats
1974 39% low, Democrats gained 39 seats
1966 47% high, Republicans gained 47 seats

In 3 of the 4 high voter turnout midterm elections, it was the republicans who gained 30 or more seats vs. 1 for the Democrats. The two elections that had low voter turnout, the democrats picked up 30 plus seats in both of those.

Here you go Rick.

2022 federal midterm election spending on track to top $9.3 billion

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2022/09/2022-midterm-election-spending-on-track-to-top-9-3-billion/

and 2020

2020 election to cost $14 billion, blowing away spending records

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/

No doubt about it, 2022 will be the most expensive midterm ever. But every new election sets records for money spent and raised.